EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ Yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s outside day found support right at the  medium term trendline which started on 3/10 from 1.1859, just piercing the 61.8% fibo of 1.1824-1.2331 at 1.2077.  Yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s negative MACD cross on the daily is slightly bearish but lacks confirmation from RSI, which is right at 50,  Initial resistance sits above at the 23.6% fibo of 1.2331-1.2065 at 1.2127 with a break above targeting an important zone at 1.2158/66; an area that may intimidate longs  as it is signified by the R1 pivot (2 x (high + low + close) / 3) ââ,¬â€œ low), 10 day SMA, and 38.2% fibo of the downward move from 1.2331 at 1.2166.  The lower trendline from 1.1859 sits below at 1.2079 as support with further weakness probing yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s low at 1.2065.  A fall to the 4/3 low of 1.2032 could also garner buyerââ,¬â"¢s interest.

USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ USD/JPY refused to comply with its reverse hammer formation yesterday, again trading within a range that is tightening with time.  Possibility remains that we are currently confined within a symmetrical triangle from early December, but yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s close above the upper resistance suggests that a breakout towards higher prices is upon us.  If the pair falls back into the range, then the more likely scenario is that we are trading within an ascending triangle that began in early February, which is actually more bullish going forward.  Weakness towards the bottom of the range targets the 38.2% fibo of 116.66-118.87 with a break below exposing the 117.41 low on 4/7.  The 117.40 level is also the area of the supporting trendline from 4/20 and a daily close below it would devastate any bullish argument.

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ Range trading reigns supreme as GBP/USD made 4 day highs yesterday only to close 4 pips above its opening price.  The pair has recovered during Tokyo trading and approaches resistance at the upper end of its range at yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s 1.7573 high with additional gains challenging the 4/5 and 3/6 highs at 1.7616/25.  A daily close above gives way to a high probability test of the 50% fibo of 1.8504-1.7046 at 17775.  If range trading persists, then bears look to test yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s low at 1.7461 with a break exposing the 61.8% fibo of 1.7249-1.7616 at 1.7390.

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ USD/CHF had gained over 250 pips since last Wednesday, but yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s large doji suggests that we are headed back towards the bottom of the range for an eventual test of the lower trendline.  RSI confirms the current directional bias unless it breaks through its own downward line and generates a positive slope.  Yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s low coincides with the 50% fibo of 1.2803-1.3059 and offers support at 1.2932.  The 200 day SMA at the psychological 1.2900 figure offers additional support with a break exposing the downward support line and bottom of the channel from early March at 1.2800.  In the event that the pair trades towards its upper channel, look for stalling at yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s high of 1.3038 with a push above giving scope to the 76.4% fibo of1.3193-1.2804 at the 1.3100 figure.

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ The US Dollar was able to hold its own today against the currency of its northern neighbor, but an inside day at the lower Bollinger band signals a potential reversal to the upside.  In fact, the last two reversals to the upside have occurred on inside days at the lower Bollinger band.  Fibo resistance from the current downtrend comes in at the 23.6% of 1.1771-1.1424 / 3/16 low at 1.1506/10 with a break above possibly generating strength towards the confluence of the 100 day SMA / 3/31 low at 1.1564/74.  A continuation of the downtrend sees the 4/11 low not far below at 1.1425 offering support as does the 74.6% fibo of 1.1297-1.1771 at 1.1409.  A break though opens things up for a test of the 1.1297 low of which a break argues for a resumption of the long term downward move.

AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œ The short term double top that completed at yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s high (.7343) looks ominous for AUD bulls as the pair trades around the .7300 figure.  On the daily, RSI is slowly turning down as is 14 day stochastic, which currently resides in overbought territory.  The 23.6% fibo of .7013-.7343 has held so far at .7265 but weakness beyond there targets the 38.2% fibo at .7217 and eventually resistance turned support at the 4/4 low of .7114.  The double top at .7342 is stiff resistance to this point with a break above probing the 3/15 high at .7409.

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ Kiwi continues to recover the major losses incurred since early December.  Boding well for bulls was the break of the .6180 level during Tokyo trading; a level defined by former support (3/22 low) turned double top resistance (4/3 and 4/6 highs).  Current overbought levels on the hourly and dealer charts give scope to a corrective move of the rally from .6060 to current levels.  The mentioned .6180 provides immediate support with further weakness targeting the 4/11 low at .6058.  A close below the .5991 low on 3/29 argues for a resumption of the downtrend.  An extension of this weekââ,¬â"¢s strength encounters resistance at the 23.6% fibo of .7196-.5991 at .6273 with additional gains seeing the 3/14 low of .6320 as a possibility.

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.