GBP/JPY ââ,¬â€œ After breaking out of consolidation that began in late February, GBP/JPY continues to impress bulls. We noted last week that a close above the upper Bollinger band on 4/4 was a sign of strength going forward and after pulling back, the pair continues to ride its upper band. Currently, GBP/JPY trades right at the 2/21 high of 207.74. A break through would likely see a test of the trendline originating from the 12/13 high of 213.00 at around 208.60, just below the 76.4% fibo of 211.22-201.63 at 208.94. Additional gains would not face resistance until the psychological 210.00 figure, which is also suggested by the 76.4% of 213.00-200.55 at 210.03. Daily oscillators are fairly bullish with MACD rising and RSI rising but not yet overbought. In any case, weakness probes todayââ,¬â"¢s 207.09 low as well as the confluence of yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s low / 10 day SMA at 206.16.
GBP/CHF ââ,¬â€œ A hammer on last weekââ,¬â"¢s candle suggests that Cable sees strength going forward against the Swiss Franc. Daily oscillators are bullish with yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s MACD positive cross and RSI rising above 50. The pair has been rejected by its 50 day SMA and 50% fibo of 2.3052-2.2448 at 2.2749/53 the last two days. That level serves as immediate resistance with a break exposing the 61.8% fibo at 2.2821. The 3/24 high at 2.2900 is a possibility if strength persists. Potential support rests at the10 day SMA / 38.2% fibo of 2.2448-2.2781 at 2.2654/57. A break may see an assault on the 50% fibo at 2.2615, which proved dependable support for bulls in mid March. Weakness through here supports a bearish bias and a possible attack on the 4/05 low at 2.2449.
GBP/AUD ââ,¬â€œ After getting pounded since 3/28, the British Pound has taken out the previous 4 dayââ,¬â"¢s highs so far today. Supporting the recent strength is RSI turning above 50 and 14 day stochastic below 20 and also turning up. A break through current resistance at the 2.4114 high made on 4/6 targets the 38.2% fibo of 2.4893-2.3748 at 2.4166. Even then, the pair is free of serious congestion until about the 2.4220-2.4420 zone; an area suggested by the 3/31 low and 61.8% fibo of 2.4843-2.3748. Former resistance at the 4/10 and 4/12 highs of 2.4016 now provide instant support with a break possible testing the 4/11 low of 2.3749. A daily close below opens the possibility for a continuation of the downtrend that began on 3/28.
Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.