EUR/USD â�,�“ In lighter pre-holiday trading yesterday, EUR/USD traced out an inside day right on its 20 day SMA, further emphasizing the extent of the current range, but also suggesting that a break is on the horizon.  The euro was resilient yesterday holding 1.2078; the confluence of the 50% fibo of 1.1824-1.2331 and supporting trendline that begins on 3/10 at 1.1859.  The massive head and shoulders on the daily is still valid but a break below the 2/27 low (1.1824) would negate its bullish implications.  Going forward, resistance is at the 4/12 high / 38.2% fibo of 1.2331-1.2063 at 1.2167 with additional strength targeting the 3/17 high at 1.2207.  To the downside, a break of the mentioned supporting trendline gives scope to the 61.8% fibo of 1.1824-1.2331 at 1.2018.  Also, the supporting trendline from a slightly upward sloping channel on the daily from the 1.1640 low in November intersects the 76.4% fibo of 1.1824-1.2331 at 1.1944.               

USD/JPY â�,�“ Determining future USD/JPY direction has been akin to pulling teeth and the task proves even more difficult now with yesterdayâ�,��"�s doji on the daily.  The pair now trades just north of its resisting trendline from the symmetrical triangle that began on 12/5 at 121.38.  Technically, this is very bullish and we would expect a breakout type of rally soon.  However, there is equal possibility that this pair is trading within an ascending triangle with its upper flat line at 1.1938 (2/3 high).  This level is immediate resistance and a break above is required to rid the technical picture of the present confusion.  A break below the lower trendline that began on 1/12 intersects with the 50% fibo of 113.49-119.38 at 116.43 and must hold to keep a bullish bias.         

GBP/USD â�,�“ Cable remained firm against the dollar, faring a bit better than other majors and holding above the 1.7500 figure.  Oscillators on the daily lean towards bulls but are more neutral than anything else.  The resiliency of the pair to hold above 1.7500 has been impressive but the inability to make higher highs in intraday charts, most notably the hourly and dealer charts, is cause for bullsâ�,��"� concern.  With little action yesterday, support and resistance remain unchanged with the 4/12 high at 1.7573 as resistance on the upside and the 1.7461 low on 4/12 as support to the downside.  A daily close above the 4/5 high of 1.7616 could facilitate a break towards the 50% fibo of 1.8504-1.7046 at 1.7775.  

USD/CHF â�,�“ Like EUR/USD, USD/CHF formed an inside day between its 10, 20, and 50 day SMAâ�,��"�s, suggestive of a break in either direction as the pair trades in the middle of a downward sloping channel that began in late February.  A break above the psychological 1.3000 runs into support at the 4/12 high of 1.3038.  Additional strength targets the confluence of the channelâ�,��"�s resisting trendline / 76.4% of 1.3193-1.2804 at 1.3100.  Weakness going forward challenges the 50% of 1.2804-1.3058 at 1.2931 and eventually the 200 day SMA at 1.2900.    

USD/CAD â�,�“ The bounce off of recent lows played out as yesterdayâ�,��"�s commentary mentioned â�,��"an inside day at the lower Bollinger band signals a potential reversal to the upside.â�,�  The pair traded to its 50 day SMA yesterday of 1.1535 and ended up closing the day at the 23.6% of 1.1771-1.1425 at 1.1506.  A continuation of dollar strength initially contends with the 50 SMA at 1.1536 with a break above targeting the 38.2% fibo of 1.1771-1.1425 at 1.1557.  The 4/10 and 4/14 lows at 1.1448 are immediate support with a break exposing the 4/11 low 1.1425.  Additional CAD strength past that point points to a resumption of the downtrend towards the 15 year low of 1.1297.

AUD/USD â�,�“ AUD/USD was contained by the short term double top at .7342 yesterday but more importantly, it traced out an evening star bearish candlestick pattern on the daily.  RSI has turned down on the daily and a stochastic cross (14, 3, 3) is in the works.  This information combined with the double top on the hourly favors shorts towards yesterdayâ�,��"�s 1.7237 low with a break below targeting the 20 day SMA at 1.7198.  The hourly oscillators look quite bearish as RSI has turned down below 50.  Still, a pullback of todayâ�,��"�s losses encounters short term Fibonacci levels of .7342-.7237.  The 50%, 61.8%, and 76.4% fibos lie at .7290, .7302, and .7317, respectively.

NZD/USD â�,�“ Kiwi rallied nicely to the 38.2% of .6685-.5991 of .6256 before failing and falling back to its previous breakout area of .6176.  In fact, the pair currently trades just below the .6176 figure, a good point of reference since it is the previous double top resistance turned breakout point and 3/22 low.  Hourly oscillators are again sloping downward and RSI on the daily has turned down as well.  The 50% fibo of .5991-.6257 at .6124 is now support with a break exposing the 4/11 low at .6058.  A return above the mentioned .6176 line sees yesterdayâ�,��"�s high at .6257 as primary resistance.

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.