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Stock Market Struggles Continue into the Holidays
By Toni Hansen | Published  04/17/2006 | Futures , Stocks | Unrated
Stock Market Struggles Continue into the Holidays

Good morning! The market saw a good deal of movement intraday on Thursday despite the lighter volume, or perhaps in part because of it, heading into the three day weekend, giving a lot more opportunity than I had anticipated going into the day.

The open was very hesitant with a slight gap down and choppy trading following a slew of premarket data, which appeared to have little affect on early morning trading. U.S. retail sales grew 0.6% in March, beating expectations by 0.2%. This can be attributed primarily to the greater-than-expected strength of auto sales, which saw a 1.6% increase. Prices of goods imported to the U.S. fell 0.4% as compared to an anticipated rise of 0.1%. On the jobs front, initial applications for U.S. state unemployment benefits were higher-than-expected, rising 12,000 to 313,000 for the week of April 2nd. At 10:00 ET the U.S. business inventories data came out. These were unchanged in February, but sales fell 0.6%. This marked the largest drop since April 2003. One of the results from Thursday's data was that it helped push the yield on the 10-year note over 5%, the highest level since June 2002.

With all the economic news for the day out of the way, the market shot higher. Within 15 minutes the Nasdaq was at Wednesday's highs, despite having just been trading near its lows a few minutes earlier. The weaker S&P 500 closed its morning gap with the rally, while the stronger Dow Jones Industrial Average soared through Wednesday's levels before stalling.

This morning move gave little warning and once the resistance levels hit it began a fairly rapid retracement. Nevertheless, the pace was still more gradual than the rally itself and support held at the 5 and 15 minute 20 sma in the Nasdaq and Dow going into the 10:45 ET reversal period. This support helped kick off a continuation move that took all three indices to new highs on the day, although the S&P 500 was still unable to bust Wednesday's upper channel. That price resistance hit at the same time as the Nasdaq and Dow ran into their 15 minute 200 sma resistance with the onset of the 11:00 ET reversal period. Rounded highs on the 1-2 minute charts finally put an end to this surge.

After grabbing hold of the lead, the Nasdaq managed to hang on the best into the afternoon, while the Dow came under the most selling pressure. The rounded highs, made by an attempt at a new high on the 2 minute charts just after 11:00, helped change the pace in the market to open the door for an afternoon reversal. It began with a pullback to the 5 minute 20 sma in the Dow and S&Ps. The market then hugged this support level, forming an Avalanche pattern on the 5 minute charts before breaking down again shortly after 12:00 ET.

The mid-day retracement off highs brought the Dow all the way back to opening levels and the 5 minute 200 sma before finding decent support. It hit just after 13:00, not quite holding the reversal period, but the S&P also came into support from Wednesday's highs at the same time and served as enough to lead to a gradual bounce. This created a bear flag on the 5 minute charts which continued out of the 14:00 ET reversal period, lasting about another hour until the 15:00 ET reversal period hit. This time the lows made on that pivot low held into the close, allowing the market to close slightly higher into the weekend. The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) posted a gain of 11.43 points to end at 2,326.11, while the S&P 500 ($SPX) rose 1 point to 1,289.12. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) gained 7.68 points to close at 11,137.65.

Heading into the new week there is not a strong bias for an intraday trend move. With a bit of rounding off at lows on the 60 minute charts it will be somewhat more easy to move higher, but the indices are stuck between strong support and resistance levels on the daily charts that can keep pushing them back and forth intraday. In my weekend scanning I had a very difficult time finding much for daily and weekly setups, either long or short. Since we're moving into earning's season, I will be focusing again this week on early movers in the premarket and will be focusing on smaller intraday setups. NIHD, NUE, TIE, and NETL are a few with nice daily charts for potential continuation moves on the upside. Overall the stocks in a decent uptrend to begin with, such as these four, which then come into the 20 sma and gap up the next morning, will typically have at least a trend morning, if not a trend day like they did on Thursday. I will be ardently searching for similar setups this week.

Economic Reports and Events
Apr 17: NY Empire State Index for Apr (8:30 am), Net Foreign Purchases for Feb (09:00)
Apr 18: Building Permits for Mar (8:30 am), Core PPI for Mar (8:30 am), Housing Starts for Mar (8:30 am), PPI for Mar (8:30 am), FOMC Minutes (14:00 pm)
Apr 19: Core CPI for Mar (8:30 am), CPI for Mar (8:30 am), Crude Inventories 04/14 (10:30 am)
Apr 20: Initial Claims 04/15 ((8:30 am), Leading Indicators for Mar (10:00 am), Philadelphia Fed for Apr (12:00 am)

Earnings Announcements of Interest
Only stocks with an average daily volume of 500K+ are listed. List may not be complete so be sure to always check your stock's earnings date before holding a position overnight. (A) = Earnings after the close, (B) = Earnings before the open, (?) = Earnings time not specified at the time of this writing
Apr 17: CCK (A), ETN (B), ECR (A), MI (B), PPDI (A), RF (B), RSAS (A), SORC (A), STI (B), WB (B), WERN (A)
Apr 18: ADTN (?), AMGN (A), ASO (B), BSX (B), BCR (?), CHB (B), CYMI (?), DHI (B), DJ (B), GILD (A), ILMN (A), JNJ (?), KEY (B), MEL (B), MAT (B), MOT (A), NCC (B), NTRS (?), PH (B), PBG (?), PHG (?), STX (A), SOV (A), STT (B), SVU (?), TER (A), TXN (A), ALL (A), TMA (A9, USB (?), UIS (B), UNH (B), WM (A), WFC (B), YHOO (?)
Apr 19: ABT (?), ADS (?), ABK (?), ASD (B), AAPL (A), ARMHY (?), ASML (01:00 am ET), T (B), CIT (B), CMA (B), CSX (?), CBST (?), ET (A), EBAY (?), FSL (?), GD (?), GENZ (B), HON (B), HCBK (B), HBAN (B), RX (A), INTC (A), JPM (B), JCI (B), JNPR (A9, KMI (4:30 pm ET), KFT (A), MDC (A), MOGN (A), NVLS (?), OSI (A), QCOM (A), RDN (A), STJ (B), STLD (A), SWFT (A), TCB (B), KO (B), UTX (B)
Apr 20: ALK (?), MO (?), AGIX (B), BAX (B), BBT (B), BLS (?), BHE (B), BRCM (A), CNI (?), COF (A), CERN (?), CBE (?), CREE (?), CY (?), DHR (B), ELNK (B), LLY (?), EMC (B), EFX (?), FFIV (?), FCS (B), FDC (A), FDRY (?), GM (08:00 am ET), GNTX (08:30 AM), GYI (?), GDW (?), HYSL (A), ITW (08:00 am ET), N (?), INFA (A), IGT (?), ISIL (?), XXIA (?), LSTR (?), MAR (B), MWV (B), MEDI (B), MRK (B), MOLX (4:00 pm ET), NE (B), NUE (B), DGX (B), RHI (?), RYL (B), SNDK (A), SAP (?), SGP (B), LUV (B), SYK (A), SPWR (?), SYNA (A), TPX (A), TXT (B), BK (B), HSY (B), NDAQ (?), UNP (A), UPS (B), VRSN (4:15 pm ET), XRIT (?), ZHNE (A), ZION (A)
Apr 21: MMM (?), ACI (B), F (B), HAL (B), IR (B), OXPS (?), RSH (?), SLB (06:00 am ET), ERICY (?), WYE (?)
Note: All economic numbers and earnings reports are in lines with those compiled by Yahoo Finance. Occasionally changes will occur that are made after the posting of this column.

Toni Hansen is President and Co-founder of the Bastiat Group, Inc., and runs the popular Trading From Main Street. She can be reached at Toni@tradingfrommainstreet.com.