EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ In lighter pre-holiday trading Friday, EUR/USD traced out an inside day right on its 20 day SMA, further emphasizing the extent of the current range, but also suggesting that a break is on the horizon.  The euro has been resilient, holding 1.2078; the confluence of the 50% fibo of 1.1824-1.2331 and supporting trendline that begins on 3/10 at 1.1859.  The massive head and shoulders on the daily is still valid but a break below the 2/27 low (1.1824) would negate its bullish implications.  Going forward, resistance is at the 3/17 high at 1.2207 with a break exposing the 76.4% fibo of 1.2331-1.2065 at 1.2268.  To the downside, a break of the mentioned supporting trendline gives scope to the 61.8% fibo of 1.1824-1.2331 at 1.2018.  Also, the supporting trendline from a slightly upward sloping channel on the daily from the 1.1640 low in November intersects the 76.4% fibo of 1.1824-1.2331 at 1.1944.

USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ USD/JPY continues to see a compression of volatility, weakening in Tokyo trading tonight to fall closer to the supporting trendline that began on 3/20 at 115.49.  The failure of the pair to remain above the resisting trendline from the symmetrical triangle that began on 12/5 at 121.38 gives greater weight  to the ascending triangle setup, with its upper flat line at 1.1938 (2/3 high).  Ascending triangles are typically bullish continuation patterns.  This upper flat line of the pattern serves as immediate resistance and a break above is required to rid the technical picture of the present confusion.  A break below the lower trendline that began on 3/20 intersects at around 117.50 and must hold to keep a bullish bias.

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ Cable remains firm against the greenback as it challenged 1.7600 in Tokyo trading this evening.  Oscillators on the daily remain slightly bullish with momentum positive and MACD holding above 0 and sloping upward slightly.  The resiliency of the pair to hold above 1.7500 has been impressive but the inability to make higher highs is cause for bullsââ,¬â"¢ concern.  However, the bullish picture improves on a daily close above the 4/12 high at 1.7573.  A daily close above the 4/5 high of 1.7616 could facilitate a break towards the 50% fibo of 1.8504-1.7046 at 1.7775.  A rejection of the recent rally to 1.7600 targets the 4/12 low at 1.7461.

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ USD/CHF followed Thursdayââ,¬â"¢s inside day with yet another inside day, suggesting a break in either direction as the pair trades in the middle of a downward sloping channel that began in late February.  Sellers have held the pair below 1.3000, and a break above the psychological 1.3000 runs into support at the 4/12 high of 1.3038.  Additional strength targets the confluence of the channelââ,¬â"¢s resisting trendline / 76.4% of 1.3193-1.2804 at 1.3100.  Weakness going forward challenges the 200 day SMA at 1.2900 and eventually the 4/7 low at 1.2804.  Down is looking more and more like the path of least resistance with the recent weakness that has followed the two inside days.

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ The Loonie begins the week on a strong note, taking out Fridayââ,¬â"¢s inside day low at 1.1487 and forming a double top near its 50 day SMA at 1.1534.  In the event of a reversal, dollar strength contends again with the 50 day SMA at 1.1537 with a break above targeting the 38.2% fibo of 1.1771-1.1425 at 1.1557.  The 4/10 and 4/14 lows at 1.1448 are immediate support with a break exposing the 4/11 low at 1.1425.  Additional CAD strength points to a resumption of the downtrend towards the 15 year low of 1.1297.

AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œ AUD/USD is rapidly approaching its short term double top at .7342, of which a daily close above would negate bearish implications from the evening star bearish candlestick pattern on the daily.  Stochastic needs to fall below 80 in order to confirm its recent negative cross.  Weakness finds support at Thursdayââ,¬â"¢s 1.7237 low with a break below targeting the 20 day SMA at 1.7198.  The hourly oscillators are overbought as RSI trades at 80 and 14 day stochastic trades at 91.  A continuation of Tokyo gains target the mentioned 1.7342 (4/7 and 4/12 highs) with a break exposing the 61.8% fibo of .7585-.7014 at .7367.

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ Kiwi continues to recoup losses, albeit slowly, suggesting that this recent strength is just consolidation before another move down.  Resistance lies just ahead at the confluence of the 38.2% fibo of .6685-.5991 / 4/13 high at .6255/57.  Hourly oscillators are overbought and slightly bearish with MACD histogram weakening and RSI stalling at 70.  The 50% fibo of .5991-.6257 at .6124 is now support with a break exposing the 4/11 low at .6058.  A return above the mentioned .6176 line sees Thursdayââ,¬â"¢s high at .6257 as primary resistance.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.