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Market Takes a Plunge Intraday, But Holds Daily Range
By Toni Hansen | Published  04/18/2006 | Futures , Stocks | Unrated
Market Takes a Plunge Intraday, But Holds Daily Range

Good morning! It was a wicked session for the indices on Monday as the new week kicked off. Initially things were simply slow. The market opened fairly flat and then inched higher for the first 45 minutes or so. The oil sectors lead a lot of the buyers, helping the S&P 500 move into Thursday's highs as crude oil futures for May delivery took it to $70.45/barrel just before the close. The Philadelphia Oil Service Index ($OSX) closed higher by 1.6%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite also moved higher out of the open, but the mini-Dow futures stalled at their 15 minute 200 sma resistance and the Nasdaq EMinis only made it into the upper trend channel from Thursday before turning over.

The market did not pivot quickly off morning highs, but rounded, creating a reverse cup with handle formation on first the 2 minute charts and then on the 5 minute charts. The one on the two minute based to form its handle along the 5 minute 20 sma support. The pattern most visible on the 5 minute charts formed by creating its handle along the 5 minute 200 sma in the Nasdaq and Dow heading into the 12:00 ET reversal period. The 5 minute 20 sma then served as resistance and led to the trigger for the early afternoon breakdown.

After declining throughout the base into noon, indicating a lack of buying, the volume in the market began to steadily increase once the support levels on the 5 minute charts gave way. With a stronger pace than the earlier move off highs, the market was able to create more than an equal move on the continuation before finding initial support at Thursday's lows in the Nasdaq around 12:45 ET. The market didn't offer traders much of a chance to catch a bear flag though, breaking only 15 minutes later into new lows. The S&P 500 and Dow fell into some congestive action at that point until 13:30 ET, but the Nasdaq just kept going.

The indices saw one last push to lows going into the 14:00 ET reversal period. At that point the volume on the 15 minute charts finally spiked, exhausting the rather significant downtrend that kicked off with a much less auspicious start at 10:15 ET (at least if you were a bear!). This last move took the Nasdaq EMini into its 50 day sma support, the S&P 500 EMini into its 100 day sma support, and the Dow into its prior daily lows. These larger support levels, combined with the surge in volume, helped hold the lows for the remainder of the day. It took a slower move into the 5 minute 20 sma and then a base along it, however, before the market was able to attempt a greater correction. The S&P 500 even managed to make it back to its 15 minute 20 sma resistance before the close.

The type of patterns I described yesterday, whereby a stock in an uptrend pulls back to the 20 day sma and then gaps up or breaks out for nice continuation plays intraday still worked very well on Monday despite the overall market weakness. Many moved off 10 day sma support as well. These included the likes of NEM, PEIX, OXY, NUE (mentioned yesterday), INFY, ENER, etc. With the onset of earnings I am expecting these types of plays to remain common over the next couple of weeks even though the overall market is still looking very choppy on the larger intraday time frames and daily charts.

Economic Reports and Events
Apr 18: Building Permits for Mar (8:30 am), Core PPI for Mar (8:30 am), Housing Starts for Mar (8:30 am), PPI for Mar (8:30 am), FOMC Minutes (14:00 pm)
Apr 19: Core CPI for Mar (8:30 am), CPI for Mar (8:30 am), Crude Inventories 04/14 (10:30 am)
Apr 20: Initial Claims 04/15 ((8:30 am), Leading Indicators for Mar (10:00 am), Philadelphia Fed for Apr (12:00 am)

Earnings Announcements of Interest
Only stocks with an average daily volume of 500K+ are listed. List may not be complete so be sure to always check your stock's earnings date before holding a position overnight. (A) = Earnings after the close, (B) = Earnings before the open, (?) = Earnings time not specified at the time of this writing
Apr 18: ADTN (?), AMGN (A), ASO (B), BSX (B), BCR (?), CHB (B), CYMI (?), DHI (B), DJ (B), GILD (A), ILMN (A), JNJ (?), KEY (B), MEL (B), MAT (B), MOT (A), NCC (B), NTRS (?), PH (B), PBG (?), PHG (?), STX (A), SOV (A), STT (B), SVU (?), TER (A), TXN (A), ALL (A), TMA (A9, USB (?), UIS (B), UNH (B), WM (A), WFC (B), YHOO (?)
Apr 19: ABT (?), ADS (?), ABK (?), ASD (B), AAPL (A), ARMHY (?), ASML (01:00 am ET), T (B), CIT (B), CMA (B), CSX (?), CBST (?), ET (A), EBAY (?), FSL (?), GD (?), GENZ (B), HON (B), HCBK (B), HBAN (B), RX (A), INTC (A), JPM (B), JCI (B), JNPR (A9, KMI (4:30 pm ET), KFT (A), MDC (A), MOGN (A), NVLS (?), OSI (A), QCOM (A), RDN (A), STJ (B), STLD (A), SWFT (A), TCB (B), KO (B), UTX (B)
Apr 20: ALK (?), MO (?), AGIX (B), BAX (B), BBT (B), BLS (?), BHE (B), BRCM (A), CNI (?), COF (A), CERN (?), CBE (?), CREE (?), CY (?), DHR (B), ELNK (B), LLY (?), EMC (B), EFX (?), FFIV (?), FCS (B), FDC (A), FDRY (?), GM (08:00 am ET), GNTX (08:30 AM), GYI (?), GDW (?), HYSL (A), ITW (08:00 am ET), N (?), INFA (A), IGT (?), ISIL (?), XXIA (?), LSTR (?), MAR (B), MWV (B), MEDI (B), MRK (B), MOLX (4:00 pm ET), NE (B), NUE (B), DGX (B), RHI (?), RYL (B), SNDK (A), SAP (?), SGP (B), LUV (B), SYK (A), SPWR (?), SYNA (A), TPX (A), TXT (B), BK (B), HSY (B), NDAQ (?), UNP (A), UPS (B), VRSN (4:15 pm ET), XRIT (?), ZHNE (A), ZION (A)
Apr 21: MMM (?), ACI (B), F (B), HAL (B), IR (B), OXPS (?), RSH (?), SLB (06:00 am ET), ERICY (?), WYE (?)
Note: All economic numbers and earnings reports are in lines with those compiled by Yahoo Finance. Occasionally changes will occur that are made after the posting of this column.

Toni Hansen is President and Co-founder of the Bastiat Group, Inc., and runs the popular Trading From Main Street. She can be reached at Toni@tradingfrommainstreet.com.