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Yen Punished in Currency Crosses
By Jamie Saettele | Published  04/18/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Yen Punished in Currency Crosses

CAD/JPYââ,¬â€œ CAD/JPY consolidated this past week after bouncing off of its upper Bollinger band on the daily.  Oscillators on the daily remain bullish with RSI above 50 and rising.  Similarly, hourly oscillators favor longs with a recent positive MACD crossover.  The pair has been trading within a bullish flag since 4/11, suggesting additional gains.  A break above the 3/11 high at 103.71 is required In order to take a more aggressive bullish stance.  In such an event, bulls will target the 12/6 high at 105.02.  Additional consolidation finds support comes at yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s low of 102.55 with a break targeting the 38.2% of 98.97-103.71 at 101.90.

CHF/JPY ââ,¬â€œ CHF/JPY is strong as it (like many of the Yen pairs) trades at the upper Bollinger band on the daily.  Strength was curtailed yesterday by the 2/3 high at 92.20 but the pair did break above that point during the recent Tokyo session and a daily close above would reinforce bullish sentiment.  However, the hourly oscillators indicate negative divergence and are falling from overbought levels, suggesting consolidation / weakness before additional gains.  Todayââ,¬â"¢s low at 91.92 may interest buyers with persisting weakness giving scope to the 38.2% fibo of 88.84-92.51 at 91.11.  Breakouts to the upside may see selling at the 12/12 high of 93.12 with further strength exposing the 127% and 138.2% fibos of 92.22-87.62 at 93.46 and 93.97.

NZD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ NZD/JPY has recovered nicely from the 70.47 low made on 3/28 and currently trades just below the 74.00 figure.  With RSI (daily) just crossing above 50 and MACD (daily) steadily rising, the rally may have more room to go.  Resistance from the confluence of the 4/13 high / upper Bollinger band on the daily at 74.08/10 looks to contain additional strength with a break above opening up a possible test of the 3/14 low at 74.81.  Yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s low at the psychological 73.00 is initial support with further losses exposing the 3/30 low of 72.30.

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.