1. New Zealand Consumer Prices
2. Australian Westpac-MI Leading Index
3. Swiss Producer & Import Prices
4. US Consumer Price Index
5. Canadian International Securities Transactions

New Zealand Consumer Prices (1Q) (22:45 GMT; 18:45 EST)
                      (QoQ)     (YoY)
Consensus:      0.7%     3.4%
Previous:          0.7%     3.2%

Outlook:  New Zealand inflation is expected to accelerate to 3.4% in the first quarter of the year, leaving Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Alan Bollard little opportunity to entertain a rate cut by the next monetary policy meeting on the 28th of this month.   The price level over the first three months found much of its upward momentum from energy and construction prices that have kept consumers' wallets wide open.  Chief among the inflationary pressures for the period were more expensive petrol and heating oil.  Initially easing to relative lows in the opening month of the year, both volatile energy products rebounded intensely by the close of the three-month stretch.  This run contributed to the 1.9% jump in retail sales in March, from no change the month before, and a hefty 3.8% rise in the value of imports for February. While inflation expectations run high, Governor Bollard had forecast a 3.3% pace for the previous quarter, which would slow to a 2.7% gait by the third quarter.  Given New Zealand's monetary policy body is charged with keeping inflation levels between 1% and 3%, a surprise versus the Governor's first quarter forecast would almost assuredly leave a rate cut off the table until June or September.

Previous: Fourth quarter inflation eased its quarterly pace to 0.7% growth over the three months after reaching hitting a 5-year high 1.1% pace of growth in the previous quarter.  Leading to the more constrained rate for the period were lower fuel costs, especially that of gasoline. Gasoline prices, which surged 17% in the three months ending September, actually fell 3% in the fourth quarter allowing for increasingly pessimistic consumers to spending their earnings on other goods. Conversely, despite the settling tempo of quarterly price growth, the Annual measure breached the central bank's tolerance level for the second consecutive quarter.  From the same quarter a year ago, consumer prices were 3.2% higher as consumers took advantage of a stronger domestic currency which made foreign goods cheaper as well as wages growing 2.8% in the previous quarter, the fastest pace on record, which carried into consumption habits in the following three months.  With the expansion of the price level still beyond official's comfort zone, predictions of a rate cut in the first half of 2006 to help spur the ailing economy were taken off the table.
 
Australian Westpac-MI Leading Index (YoY) (FEB) (03:30 GMT; 20:30 EST)
Consensus:  n/a
Previous:   3.7%

Outlook: Though there is no market consensus for the annualized growth rate in the joint measure of Australia's leading index, some positive data releases are likely to give expectations for the coming three to nine months a boost.  The most concerning issue for the leading index the month before, the labor market, began to take a turn for the better.  March's jobless rate dropped to a 30-year low 5.0%.  The housing market also rode the coattails of an improving job market.   Building approvals and home loans rebounded into positive territory in February, 2.2% and 1.1% respectively, after both contracted the month before. High employment was also encouraging domestic consumption with retail sales rising for the third consecutive month by 0.7% in February.  Other positive points for the month were the improvement of the trade balance on a nearly 11% jump in exports as well as continued strength in equity markets.  If this index improves for the month, it may persuade the Reserve Bank of Australia to consider another rate hike even though inflation is currently under its 3% tolerance level.

Previous: The Melbourne Institute-Westpac Banking Corp. leading index indicator, which forecasts economic activity for the coming three to nine months, reported a contraction in growth to 3.7% in January from a year ago.  This compares to the 4.4% consensus in the previous month's annualized data.  The leading component of the index reflected what most of those surveyed are worrying over for the months to come - the employment picture.  By January, the jobless rate had risen to 5.3%, the highest level since October of 2005.  The rise in the unemployment rate further led to contractions in the housing market.  Home loans fell 0.4% and building approvals dropped 2.3%.  Businesses were also responding dampened enthusiasm with orders for raw materials exported abroad easing and capacity constraints easing.  Despite this, a few positive components persisted.  Consumer confidence and retail sales, bucking the rise in the unemployed, both rose for in month of January.   As the leading index indicator cools, the RBA will better be able to hold the benchmark interest rate at its current 5.50% as annual inflation remains within the confines of their tolerance band.

Swiss Producer and Import Prices (MAR) (07:15 GMT; 03:15 EST)
                  (MoM)   (YoY)
Consensus:  0.3%   1.7%
Previous:      0.3%   1.6%

Outlook: Prices for factory and farm produced goods as well as imported products are expected to have continued their climb higher in March at a rate of 0.3%.  Just as in February, a surge in crude oil prices late in the month is likely to have an inflationary effect on both producer and import prices.  Furthermore, gains in metal prices may cause import prices on the whole to climb even faster than the headline figure.  As demand for Swiss-made exports continues to build, companies will be increasing investment in equipment and labor.  Thanks to a healthy employment environment, producers will be able to pass the costs incurred from this expansion to customers, generating further inflationary pressure.  As such, it is highly likely that the Swiss National Bank will pursue higher rates for the remainder of the year. Interest rate futures traders appear to be betting on at least three more rate hikes before 2007. 

Previous: Producer and import prices in Switzerland increased by 0.3% in February as companies found it easier to pass higher raw materials and energy costs along to customers.  The level inflation suggested that the country's export-led expansion is spilling over into the domestic economy as well.  Prices for factory and farm produced goods rose 0.3% while import prices gained 0.4% on the month.  In the case of both producer and import prices, late February's surge in oil prices was the major cause for inflation.  Apart from oil, producer prices also found upward momentum on more expensive agricultural products while import prices saw inflation due to higher metal prices.  Gains in crude oil, gold prices and metals in general also pushed higher in late February.  Expecting such inflation, the SNB raised interest rates in mid-March by 25 basis points to combat the possibility that Switzerland's economic expansion could drive prices higher in
coming months.

US Consumer Price Index (MAR) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
                    (MoM)    (YoY)
Consensus:     0.4%    3.5%
Previous:          0.1%   3.6%

Outlook: The Consumer Price Index is expected to reflect inflation of 0.4% in consumer prices throughout the U.S. over the month of March. Expecting that much of this inflation will result from an uptrend in crude oil prices that began in the latter half of the month, economists predict the core figure to read 0.2%.  Steeper fuel costs may result in a higher overall figure for more reasons than the fact that the underlying commodities are included in the basket of goods comprising the index.  For example, some airline companies have reported to raise one-way fares by $50 to cover their fuel expenses.  Because airline tickets are considered a service and services make up 60% of the entire index, such price increases will push the overall figure even higher. Another indication of increased inflation in March is the surge in commodities prices.  Rapid wage growth and economic expansion in the first quarter will also add to inflationary pressure.  With inflation already looming at the upper end of the Federal Reserve's target range, the central bank will need to take measures to solidify its hold on inflation before enacting any changes in monetary policy.

Previous: In February, the U.S. Consumer Price Index registered a reading of 0.1%, marking a substantial slowing of consumer price inflation from the previous month when the CPI issued a reading of 0.7%.  The month's dawdling pace of consumer price inflation suggests that businesses may finally be losing the ability to pass costs along to a willing consumer.  Increased competition from abroad has made it difficult for companies to charge their customers higher prices out of fear of losing market share.  Prices for goods imported from abroad decreased by 0.5%, the first depreciation in three months.  To compete with cheaper imports, domestic producers were forced to keep a hold on prices.  Also preventing prices from inflating at a faster pace was February's stabilization in crude oil.  Energy prices on the whole fell 1.2% on the month in comparison to January's 5% increase, led by a 4.5% decrease in natural gas prices.  February's slowdown in inflation prompted speculation that the Fed may start backing down from its tightening policy later in 2006.

Canadian International Securities Transactions (FEB) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
Consensus: C$2.0B
Previous: C$3.0B

Outlook: Overall buying of Canadian securities by foreign investors is expected to have declined to C$2.0 billion in February after January's rebound in purchasing activity.  In contrast to the previous month's stellar performance, the S&P/TSX composite index had its worst month of 2006 in February.  As a result, enthusiasm over Canadian equities is expected to have declined over the month.  Furthermore, much of the recent excitement in Canadian equities has been in energy stocks, which have performed relatively well on appreciating energy product prices.
The stabilization of crude oil in the first half of February may have discouraged international investors from continued purchasing of stock in energy companies.  Also supporting the case for fewer Canadian security purchases in February is the declining attractiveness of fixed-income securities.  Not only are foreign investors anticipating fading returns from Canadian bonds, but Canadians are also looking to purchase fixed-income securities in other nations where interest rates are moving higher at a faster clip. 

Previous: Net foreign purchases of Canadian securities came in line with economists' expectations in January at C$3.03 billion.  This marked the fourth time in the last five months that foreigners bought more Canadian securities than they sold and a reversal of the previous month's net sell-off.  Much of the buying frenzy in Canadian securities was over equities with a net C$4.7 billion worth purchased by international investors-the most in nearly six years.  Conversely, bonds were not as popular amongst investors as they sold a net C$1.33 billion worth of the fixed-income securities.  Apparently, investors are becoming increasingly uncertain that interest rate tightening in Canada will outpace hikes in the rest of the world.  U.S. investors, the largest international players in Canadian securities, increased their equity holdings in Canadian companies by C$3.8 billion to take advantage of the month's 6% rise in the S&P/TSX Composite Index.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.