Good Morning, Traders. Apparently the fed trumps all. In a day when crude futures hit a record $73.20 a barrel and gold touched $621.40, the FOMC released the minutes from their last meeting at 2pm and suddenly equities were attractive again. The Dow posted its largest gain in a year after the Fed said that the rate hikes may be drawing to a close. More important the amount of upswing is of course the technical picture that was created as the market shot higher after the 2pm announcement. If we look on the annotated chart above, we can see a clear break of the downtrend (pullback) in the Dow. The close above the diagonal blue line is bullish and should open the door to a push at least to retest the prior swing highs at 11,328.80 which were tested on March 22nd. After that we reassess the situation as we are fond of saying. The flip side to all this positivity? Fed moves don't always hold. Remember that intraday action is often dictated by many short-term players in the markets who are trading off of momentum. These knee-jerk reactions to Fed announcements can often be just that...reactionary. Time will tell if the move was for real, or if the market goes back to focusing on the crude and metals situation. One factor which definitely plays into the markets favor is the overall volume pattern. Yesterdays total turnover on the NYSE was up 45% (!!!) over Monday, and ahead by 22% on the Nasdaq. In fact it was the highest volume day we have had since March 17, and this on a day when the Dow up almost 200. So a definite "A" for accumulation (and effort) on the part of the market. Near-term bias has switched to up for now.

Peter Reznicek is the Chief Equity Strategist and a principal of the Prana Fund, a domestic hedge fund, and ShadowTrader, a subsidiary of thinkorswim which provides coaching and education to its clients on both intraday and swing trading of equities. For a free trial to the full version of The Big Picture or to learn about ShadowTrader's other services, visit shadowtrader.net or send an email to preznicek@shadowtrader.net.