EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ The euro rallied 133 pips following Mondayââ,¬â"¢s 176 pip performance.  Most important for bulls was the daily close above the 1.2323 double top as indicated by highs on 1/25 and 4/6 at 1.2323 and 1.2331.  The pair has stalled at the 76.4% fibo of 1.2589-1.1640.  Negative divergence with oscillators on the hourly points to much needed consolidation / correction before bulls attempt a run at higher prices.  Pullbacks from the recent rally find support at the 4/6 high of 1.2331.  A break exposes the 23.6% fibo of 1.2068-1.2369 at 1.2300.  The next target for bulls would be the 9/2/2005 high, also the top of the head and shoulders, at 1.2588. 

USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ The Yen gained against the dollar and USD/JPY traded south of 117.00 for the first time since April 5th.  The pair stalled in Tokyo trading at the 61.8% fibo of 115.49-118.86 at 116.73, which is the first area of support going forward.  More importantly, USD/JPY rests right at a supporting trendline dating to May 2005.  Possibility remains for gains suggested by the ascending triangle on the daily as long as the pair does not close below the supporting trendline.  A break below targets the confluence of the 3/28 low / 76.4% fibo of 115.49-118.86 at 116.25/29.  Additional weakness exposes the 3/20 low at 115.49.  Contra moves target the 4/17 low at 117.51 with a break above targeting the 61.8% fibo of 118.82-116.73 at the psychological 118.00. 

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ GBP/USD was able to follow through on Mondayââ,¬â"¢s break above the 200 day SMA for the first time since 10/21/2004, closing above the 50% fibo of 1.8502-1.7046 at 1.7775.  The pair has taken out the previous 10 weekââ,¬â"¢s highs as well.  There is congestion on the daily until the 1/25 high at 1.7934, suggesting that the current move is bound to slow down a bit.  A break of 1.7934 targets the 38.2% fibo of the enormous decline from 1.9546-1.7046 at the ominous 1.8000.  In the event of a corrective move, Mondayââ,¬â"¢s high at 1.7747 is the first level of support with a break below exposing the 38.2% fibo of 1.7373-1.7842 at 1.7663. 

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ USD/CHF closed below its lower Bollinger band (daily) yesterday for the second day in a row, and thus emphasizing the weakness in the pair.  Daily lows on 10/6 and 1/6 at 1.2669 are support at current levels.  Like the other majors, some consolidation / correction of the recent enormous move is likely considering the positive divergence with oscillators on hourly and dealer charts.  Resistance comes in at the 23.6% fibo of 1.3057-1.2665 at 1.2757 with additional strength encountering the 4/6 low at 1.2804.  A continuation of weakness targets the 61.8% fibo of 1.2235-1.3283 at 1.2635.  The 1/24 low at 1.2553 would be the next target for bears.   

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ USD/CAD continued its descent, breaking below the 4/11 low at 1.1425.  Although approaching 30, RSI on the daily chart is not yet extreme, indicating more losses in the coming days as the pair targets the 3/2 low at 1.1297.  Hourly oscillators are oversold but lack divergence to seriously consider a material correction.  Still, resistance stems from the 4/11 low at 1.1425 and yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s high at 1.1468.  As mentioned, 1.1297 remains the target / support with a break exposing the November 1991 low at 1.1189.

AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œ AUD/USD continued to gain and closed above its 100 day SMA for the first time since March 1st.  The pair is approaching the 76.4% fibo of .7586-.7014 at .7450 a break of which would target the long term resisting trendline that began in March 2005.  The trendline rests at around .7470.  AUD/USD momentum is slowing as evidenced by negative divergence with oscillators on hourly charts, especially compared to other majors, thus a correction is likely.  The Tokyo low from tonight is immediate support at .7410 with additional losses exposing the 23.6% fibo of .7237-.7440 at .7392.  The technical picture remains bullish until a daily close below the 4/7 and 4/12 highs at the former double top / breakout point of .7342.    

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ Kiwi continued to follow the other majors, closing above the 23.6% fibo of .7198-.5991 at .6275 and targeting the 38.2% fibo at .6450.  The pair currently trades at the upper end of an upward sloping channel (since the end of March) and a break above it would clear the way for a test of .6450.  If the pair falls back into the range, then look for support at the 3/23 high of 6293, the 4/13 high of .6257 and ultimately the lower supporting trendline from 4/4 is support at around .6180.  

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.