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British Pound Crosses Look Ready To Tumble
By Jamie Saettele | Published  04/20/2006 | Currency | Unrated
British Pound Crosses Look Ready To Tumble

GBP/JPY ââ,¬â€œ Cable has rallied nicely against the Yen the past week, having traded above the psychological 210.00 level and even closing above the figure yesterday.  The pair has touched its upper Bollinger band on the daily everyday for the last 12 days, with today being the thirteenth day of strength.  However, oscillators on the daily are looking weaker with a RSI falling below 70 and a negative stochastic cross above 80 suggesting that day number thirteen on the Bollinger band will indeed be unlucky for bulls.  Interesting as well is a common pattern of the pair where it often makes a larges positive candle on the daily chart; the day before a decline.  The candle is often the largest or very close to the largest in the current uptrend.  Such candles formed on Nov. 11, Dec. 12, Feb. 2, and yesterday.  The prior candles all preceded violent price declines.  

GBP/CHF ââ,¬â€œ GBP/CHF also looks like it is running out of steam, getting rejected at a trendline that began on the 2/28 high (2.3051).  Daily oscillators have slowed and are more or less neutral with RSI at 50.  Further evidence of a move down is the double top on hourly charts (accompanied by negative divergence as well) from the last two days highs at 2.2746.  Support comes in at the 38.2% fibo of 1.2575-2.2746 at 2.2681 with a break below giving scope to yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s low at 2.2587.  The double top at 2.2746 serves as initial resistance.      

GBP/AUD ââ,¬â€œ GBP/AUD has traded in a range the past week mostly between 2.4149 and 2.4098, consolidating losses from the downtrend that began in late March at 2.4800.  Daily oscillators are slightly bearish with MACD just crossing into negative territory and RSI declining below the 50 midpoint.  The intraday chart is more telling though as it shows a descending triangle with its support anywhere from 2.3907 to 2.3943 (4/18 and 4/19 lows).  A break below the 4/18 low at 2.3907 sees sellers target the 4/11 low at 2.3749 and eventually the 76.4% fibo of 2.3351-2.4843 at 2.3706.  Support stems from todayââ,¬â"¢s high at 2.4051 with additional gains targeting the 4/17 high at 2.4149.

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.