EUR/AUD ââ,¬â€œ EUR/AUD spent the last week digesting losses from the 1.7111-1.6499 early April downtrend.  Oscillators are turning bearish on the daily with MACD inching towards 0 and RSI just below 50 with a slightly negative slope.  Yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s rally was rejected right at the 38.2% fibo of the mentioned downtrend from 1.7111 at 1.6732, which remains initial resistance.  The recent activity looks like a bear flag as well, with a break below the 4/19 low of 1.6524 favoring a resumption of the larger downward move and targeting the 61.8% fibo of 1.5962-1.7111 at 1.6403.

EUR/CAD ââ,¬â€œ EUR/CAD rallied furiously at the end of last week and into the beginning of this week, but was turned back by the 50% fibo of 1.4361-1.3834 at 1.4100.  A head and shoulders reversal is evident on the daily chart, suggesting that the path of least resistance is down.  Support comes in at the confluence of the 10 day SMA / 50% fibo of 1.3838-1.4111 at 1.3971/75.  A break below would target the 4/14 low / 76.4% fibo of the same bear move at 1.3903.  Hourly oscillators are sloping down and thus also favor shorts but a push higher would see resistance at the 4/19 high of 1.4111.  Only a daily close above the high of the left shoulder (3/20 high) at 1.4223 would negate the bearish implications of the head and shoulders pattern.

EUR/NZD ââ,¬â€œ EUR/NZD also spent the past week primarily in a range, bound by 1.9715 and 1.9400.  Daily oscillators suggest that the pair is going to resume its descent from the 2.0223 top made on 4/4.  RSI is steadily decreasing from previously overbought levels and MACD is declining towards the 0 line.  The 10 day SMA also just recently crossed the 20 day SMA ââ,¬â€œ this is the first such cross since a positive cross on 2/21 that preceded the massive run-up from 1.8000.  Support comes in at the 4/13 low of 1.9336 with a break targeting the 3/24 low at 1.9136.  A rebound from the recent decline sees a test of the double top, also indicating further losses, at yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s high of 1.9712.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.