Energies
Once the contract highs were broken in crude it was and is skies the limit.  Iran fears?  Crude ETF?  Supply data?  I am not sure there is anything that justifies the breaking of the Katrina highs fundamentally, but there definitely are a number of issues that made a bunch of sellers walk away.  This could become a silver chart if the momentum to the upside continues on lighter than desired volume and lack of grounded fundamental issues.  Gas prices at the pump ahead of summer driving season are so high (and getting worse) that in and of itself the prices will reduce demand and thus ultimately reduce prices.  Plus the airlines have pushed their prices a decent bit higher heading into the summer.  I will admit it is a bit concerning that the market is pushing to these highs and we have the memory of Katrina likely maintaining a market hysteria through the hurricane season even without any bombs over Iran.  Overall I say the market is way ahead of itself and May will give us a retracement below $70 ahead of the hurricane season, but the range for a potential high being set in the next week or two is from Fridayââ,¬â"¢s high all the way up to approximately $82.

Financials
Stocks surged on solid economic data and reversed an overall ugly formation.  Nevertheless the market appears stuck in a situation where new highs are likely short lived.  Bear put spreads in the S&P are recommended.  The bond market offered fresh lows and a slight break through 107.  I remain a long term bear that is temporarily out of his short positions and even playing a near term potential bounce here.  The market is oversold and lacks the basis to assume more rate hikes at the moment.  The dollar continues to be volatile and range bound all at the same time.  I do see a major euro/US$/yen price shift until a clear difference in economic and interest rate policy becomes apparent.  The Canadian is should be avoided until a break below 85 is seen.

Grains
A quiet week in grains as volatility dies down after the key reports from recent weeks.  I see a slow retracement in all grains from now until the middle to end of May.  Corn is a strong sell with stops above Aprilââ,¬â"¢s high.  Oats look ready to collapse and cheap OTM puts are recommended.

Meats
A solid bounce in cattle is offering the first dead cat bounce since the breakdown began in January.  This bounce could easily get some legs and, despite Fridayââ,¬â"¢s technical breakdown, I would add more longs on a break above 77.05 and keep my sell stops at 72.35 until then (then trail it up to 74.30 if hit at 77.05).  Hogs and bellies remain good buys here with stops below the April lows.

Metals
I feel badly for those that suffered from the bloodbath on Thursday, as silverââ,¬â"¢s lock limit and break of limit to over a $2 plunge likely devastated a large amount of bulls.  While there was no news of note to cause the break, a little research shows that Wednesdayââ,¬â"¢s hike of maintenance margin requirements on silver caused a large amount of traders to tighten their stops and lighten their position load.  This, in turn, caused one of the most severe long liquidations in the history of this market (Hunt Bros aside).  Fridayââ,¬â"¢s recovery is technically questionable and Monday will either see a filling of the Thursday bar or a more likely down day in which a consolidation begins to form between 11.40 and 13.50.  Gold remains a bit stronger, but should see some delayed effects if silver doesnââ,¬â"¢t make an immediate recovery.  Copper puts are worth a good look.

Softs
OJ weakness came a little bit later than originally anticipated, but overall the market is due for more of a correction than what has been seen thus far.  Coffee resiliency is a good sign that July bull call spreads are still the way to go.  The market is setting a bull run to plus 150 prices.  Cocoa is choppy but remains an OTM call buying opportunity.  Cotton weakness persists and this market will be below 50 possibly by Friday, but more likely within the next two weeks.  Sugar price support suggests another possible bull spike, but overall consolidation is more apparent than a price trend.  Lumber made a nice move up but I believe it is short lived and a good bear entry.

James Mound is the head analyst for www.MoundReport.com, and author of the commodity book 7 Secrets. For a free email subscription to James Mound's Weekend Commodities Review and Trade of the Month, click here.