EUR/USD â�,�“ Last week was quite the party for euro bulls as EUR/USD set not only yearly, but 30 week highs.  The strength seen last week could quite possibly be the start of a major up trend, but that does not mean that near term profit taking will not lead to declines in the interim.  From open to close, the pair rallied 235 pips last week.  There have been only 35 weeks (prior to last week) out of a possible 384 weeks (since the advent of the euro in 1999) that EUR/USD has gained 200 pips or more from open to close in one week.  Of those 35 weeks, the next week saw a decline in price 21 times.  Thus, after a gain of at least 200 pips, EUR/USD declined the next week 61% (21/35) of the time.  The average of those 21 declines was 147 pips.  On the other hand, if the pair will continue to gain the next week 40% of the time (14/35) the 14 gains produced an average gain of 105 pips.  In summary, history suggests that the probability for a correction is greater than the probability for a continuation and that the potency of a move down is potentially greater than the potency of a move up by a factor of roughly 1.5 to 1.

USD/JPY â�,�“ The Yen has slaughtered the US dollar as USD/JPY has finally found support at the 200 day SMA.  Fridayâ�,��"�s close below the supporting trendline from May 2005 immediately led to todayâ�,��"�s 140 pip drop.  We can exclaim with a good deal of certainty that we have left the tight range conditions behind a long as the pair makes a daily close below the 3/20 low of 115.49.  A sustained break below the 200 day SMA at 115.50 targets the 50% fibo of 108.75-121.37 at 115.06.  Continued weakness probes the 1/12 low of 113.41.  The confluence of the former supporting trendline from May near 117.00 / 4/19 low at 116.93 is now resistance.  Daily oscillators are bearish but have plenty of room to move to the downside with RSI still above 30 â�,�“ RSI can hover around extreme levels for quite some time during strong trends.

GBP/USD â�,�“ Like EUR/USD, GBP/USD has continued to gain following last Thursdayâ�,��"�s correction.   A test for bulls comes in at the 4/19 high / double top with the 1/25 high at 1.7934.  Just above is additional resistance at the 38.2% fibo of 1.9550-1.7046 at 1.8000.  Daily RSI has dipped below 70 indicating weakening momentum as we approach 1.8000.  The weekly shows that we matched the previous 2006 high made in January, but again, this means that a double top is in place, which poses a threat to GBP bulls.  Support comes in at Fridayâ�,��"�s high of 1.7844 with a break below exposing the 23.6% fibo of 1.7249- 1.7934 at 1.7773.  The potential for a reversal this week is heightened by the fact that the pair trades very near to its upper Bollinger band on the daily.

USD/CHF â�,�“ USD/CHF mirrors EUR/USD and has resumed its descent after correcting to above the 1.2800 figure at the end of last week.  As mentioned on Friday, â�,��"the 10 day SMA cross below the 200 day SMAâ�,� for the first time since â�,��"9/30/2004 at 1.2588 â�,��" suggests that the path of least resistance is down. The next support area comes in at the 4/19 low at 1.2648 with additional losses targeting the 1/24 low at 1.2553.  Initial resistance is at the short term double top from the 4/18, 4/20, and 4/21 highs at 1.2814/22.  The 200 day SMA at 1.2894 comes in as an additional challenge for bulls.  Like the other pairs, daily RSI is still just above 30 , indicating the more losses should not come as a surprise.

USD/CAD â�,�“ USD/CAD continues to digest recent losses, trading primarily between 1.1420 and 1.1350.    With daily moving averages and daily oscillators still sloping down, the picture continues to be bearish with no obvious support until the 3/2 low at 1.1297.   Hourly oscillators are again bearish and sloping down but have yet to reach extreme oversold levels. A daily close above the 1.1349 low on 4/19 would make a double bottom on the daily of which the proximity of support would favor longs regarding reward to risk.  Resistance comes in at the 4/20 high of 1.1422 with a break targeting the 4/17 high at 1.1532.  To the downside, 1.1297 remains the target / support with a break exposing the November 1991 low at 1.1189.

AUD/USD â�,�“The pair continues to trade at its 200 day SMA of .7463 which remains initial resistance with additional resistance coming in at the 61.8% fibo of .7761-.7013 at .7476.  The trendline stemming from March 2005 rests near 1.7576 strengthens resistance at that level.  In the event that buyers can push through the ceiling made by the 3/2, 3/3, and 4/19 highs at .7481/85, the pair targets the confluence of the 1/31, 2/1 highs / 76.4% fibo of .7761-.7013 at .7585.  A very short term head and shoulders on the hourly (more obvious on 15 minute chart though) surely threatens bulls.  Yesterdayâ�,��"�s low at .7363 is initial support with a break below targeting the 61.8% fibo of .7237-.7481 at .7330.

NZD/USD â�,�“ The Kiwi continues to strengthen, trading to its highest level since March 14th. The hourly oscillators are a bit overbought and show slight negative divergence, suggesting that the recent .6240-.6371 rally may be coming to an end.  A break above this eveningâ�,��"�s Tokyo high of .6371 targets the 38.2% fibo of .7198-.5991 at .6450.  Lower prices eventually find support at the 23.6% fibo of .5991-.6371 at .6282 with a break below targeting the 4/20 low at .6239.  the recent rise from .5991 looks like a 5 step wave pattern that is currently in the beginning of its 5th wave.  The top would be placed at a equal to or a multiple of the first wave (.5991-.6185).  Thus, targets for a top would be .6437, .6488, .6509, and .6556.  These prices are found by taking the length of wave one and adding it to the beginning of wave 5 as well as adding the length of wave one x 1.272, 1.382, and 1.618 to the beginning of wave 1.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.