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Euro Major Crosses Set To Tumble
By Jamie Saettele | Published  04/24/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Euro Major Crosses Set To Tumble

EUR/JPY â,“ Last weekâ,"s commentary noted that â,"a reversal to the downside is possible as the pair trades at its upper Bollinger band on the weekly and is accompanied by the imposing long upper wick from the candle that ended on 4/7â,.  We have seen just that as the pair has tumbled through supports including its 10 and 20 day SMAâ,"s.  The picture looks even more bearish now with a negative MACD cross in the works and RSI breaking through 50.  The low so far today is at the 38.2% fibo of 137.28-145.49 at 142.37.  A break below there targets the 50% fibo at 141.39.  Some digestion of recent losses is expected as hourly oscillators are vastly oversold.  Resistance comes in from the 4/12 low at 142.82 and the 4/11 high at 143.97.

EUR/CHF â,“ After rallying off of its lower Bollinger band on the daily towards the end of last week, the pair has stalled and sits trapped between its 10 and 20 day SMAâ,"s at 1.5714/44.  EUR/CHF is currently completing the right shoulder of a head and shoulders and reversal pattern.  The neckline is at the 3/16 and 4/18 lows of 1.5630 of which a break below completes the pattern and targets the 50% fibo of 1.5355-1.5853 at 1.5604 and eventually the 200 day SMA at 1.5546.  Initial resistance is at the 4/17 high at 1.5732 and then the 4/21 high at 1.5757.  The head and shoulders pattern is negated upon a daily close above the 3/24 high of 1.5783.

EUR/GBP â,“ EUR/GBP is also close to completing a head and shoulders reversal pattern that began in early March.  Last eveningâ,"s high at .6943 was rejected by the 20 day SMA, which remains initial resistance.  A break above would target the 4/1 high at .6970.  Daily oscillators are bearish with RSI sloping down and recently crossing below 50 and MACD also sloping down and inching closer to its 0 line.  Wednesdayâ,"s .6888 is support with a break below exposing former resistance (3/9 high) turned support (3/15 low) at .6875.  A break below completes the head and shoulders reversal and targets the 200 day SMA at .6840.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.