1. Swiss Trade Balance
2. German IFO - Business Climate
3. UK CBI Industrial Trends Report
4. Bank of Canada Rate Decision
5. US Consumer Confidence

Swiss Trade Balance (MAR) (6:15 GMT; 02:15 EST)
Consensus:  0.70B
Previous: 0.82B

Outlook:   Switzerlandââ,¬â"¢s trade surplus should continue its contract in March, according to the marketââ,¬â"¢s consensus, with rising energy costs sapping some of the benefit obtained from favorable demand in export destinations.  In the month, crude oil prices, which had until that point held to a relatively low range, began to approach $70 per barrel.  Other necessary material prices, such as precious and industrial metals, were lending their weight as well.  Moreover, business demand in Germany, Switzerlandââ,¬â"¢s largest export market, rose to a 15-year high; likely buoying orders for Swiss-made goods. Analysts anticipate that this slump in the trade balance will rebound as domestic demand continues to drive expansion.  In addition to increased employment, the Swiss economy is sporting by a stock market rally, a pickup in construction, and strong consumer confidence.  Economists still predict that the Swiss National Bank will raise interest rates in June, the trade balance may help determine by how much the bank will lift borrowing costs.

Previous:  In February, Switzerlandââ,¬â"¢s trade surplus unexpectedly shrank to 0.91B, from 1.12B, led by a hefty 2.5% drop in exports.  Notwithstanding the actual export figure, foreign demand for Swiss goods was in a good position going into the month.  Firm confidence in Germany was running at a 14-year high while the exchange rate between the euro and Swiss franc continued to improve.  Aggravating the problem was the continued pace of imports.  Swiss consumers continued to purchase foreign-produced goods at a fever pitch in February with a strong job market boosting confidence.   Over the same period, imports rose 0.4% as costs of basic materials such as oil and metals rose.  Overall at home, consumer prices remain tamed by increased retail competition and steady employee wages.  Economists predict that inflation will rebound to 1.2% this year, and will reach the 2.0% upper limit by 2008.  Moreover, the central bank has been focused on controlling the growth of the $340 billion economy, thus raised borrowing costs to 1.25%, from 1.00%, last month. 
 
German IFO - Business Climate (APR) (08:00 GMT; 04:00 EST)
Consensus:  104.8
Previous: 105.4

Outlook: The German IFO survey of 7000 executives is expected to dip slightly from Marchââ,¬â"¢s record high, from 105.4 to 104.8, as rising energy costs weigh on business sentiment.  Despite the forecasted fall, if realized, the figure would suggest the economy continues to recover.  Both imports and exports growth have exceeding expectations in the past months as commerce and production accelerate.  In addition, consumer consumption should through in its support as the ILO unemployment rate improved to 8.6% from 8.8%.  However, a recent release showed consumer prices slowed to 1.8% from the previous year, below the European Central Bankââ,¬â"¢s 2.0% upper target, suggesting producers are not easily able to pass higher costs onto the consumer.  All this aside, if the business climate continues to surpass expectations, the central bank may raise interest rates to 2.75%, from 2.50%, next week.

Previous: Last month, German business confidence unexpectedly rose to 105.4, the highest reading in almost 15 years.  The survey beat expectations of a dip to 102.9, from 103.4 in February, as export led growth continues to fuel domestic spending, and inadvertently increasing inflation in Europeââ,¬â"¢s largest economy.  In February, the money supply, which is a strong indicator of future price rises, accelerated at the fastest rate in five months.  Some investors have begun placing bets that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates up to three times by the end of the year as a preemptive measure in controlling forecasted, domestic demand driven inflation, which would bring borrowing costs up to 3.25%.  The central bank left interest rates unchanged at 2.50% earlier this month.

UK CBI Industrial Trends Report - Total Orders (APR) (10:00 GMT; 06:00 EST)
Consensus:  -15
Previous: -16

Outlook: Economists are expecting to see continued improvement in the U.K.ââ,¬â"¢s industrial sector as the Confederation of British Industryââ,¬â"¢s industrial trends report is anticipated to issue a reading of -15 for April.  An assessment of other recently released industrial data suggests that the report will be strong-even stronger than Marchââ,¬â"¢s reading which was the highest since Q1 of 2005.  The United Kingdomââ,¬â"¢s manufacturing sector got off to a better start this year in comparison to the end of 2005.  Significant gains have been made thus far in 2006 in machinery and equipment production.  Producers have also been gaining pricing power as average factory gate prices begin to rise sharply.  While such improvement bodes well for the sector, manufacturers cannot rely on domestic demand alone if the economy as a whole is to rebound on the helms of industrial output.  Export orders have been idle since last yearââ,¬â"¢s industrial slowdown.  If manufacturers hope to spring back, they will need to realize intense acceleration in new foreign orders.

Previous: According to the CBI survey, 18% of manufacturers found their books to have more orders than usual in March while 34% reported fewer orders than usual, resulting in a survey balance of -16.  This suggests that British manufacturers are coming off of their best month since the same time a year ago.  Marchââ,¬â"¢s relatively strong reading was the best thus far in 2006 in comparison to Januaryââ,¬â"¢s register of -26 and Februaryââ,¬â"¢s -18.  The larger number of new orders in March is a reflection of successful marketing activities and growing domestic demand.  In spite of the gush in new order activity, however, manufacturer margins were tight as high energy costs threw a damper on profits.  Additionally, steel, aluminum, chemical and plastic prices were relatively high on the month.  To combat the crippling input costs, British producers continue heavy operational restructuring and are holding off on increasing employment levels. 

Bank of Canada Rate Decision (13:00 GMT; 09:00 EST)
Consensus:  4.00%
Previous: 3.75%

Outlook: Economists are expecting the Bank of Canada to raise its overnight target rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% on Tuesday, April 25th.  If so, this will be the sixth straight such rate hike that the Bank has instituted in order to combat inflation.  Economic growth in Canadaââ,¬â"¢s oil-rich western provinces has intensified the BoCââ,¬â"¢s watch over inflation and all indications point toward further interest rate tightening this week.  In March, unemployment fell to its lowest point in 30 years and large energy companies expanded their facilities in the west.  As these companies continue to hire workers and invest in equipment to amplify output, Canadaââ,¬â"¢s economy gets increasingly closer to operating at capacity.  With wages and home prices on the rise, the nation could reach a point where the economy cannot grow without pushing inflation rates past the BoCââ,¬â"¢s 2% target.  To avoid such a scenario, the Bank began tightening rates in September of 2005.  However, it has become increasingly likely that the BoC will soon be able to take a break from its hawkish policy.  While steep gasoline and housing costs have led to rapid consumer price inflation on the whole, core inflation has remained under control.  As a result, the Bank of Canadaââ,¬â"¢s statements on monetary policy have become less clear, and economists have begun to speculate that the Bank may put a hold on further tightening after Mayââ,¬â"¢s meeting. 

US Consumer Confidence (APR) (14:00 GMT; 10:00 EST)
Consensus:  106.2
Previous: 107.2

Outlook: Analysts predict consumer confidence dipped to 106.2 last month as gasoline prices approached $3/gallon and high borrowing costs dampened sentiment.  Despite this reserved dip however, the survey remains buoyant as the jobless rate hovered at a four year low of 4.7% and hourly wages rose 3.4% from a year earlier.  Further boding well for American optimism are expectations that firms are planning to continue to accelerate hiring as the economy is in the midst of a significant recovery.  Rising income may also increase consumer spending, giving retailers the confidence to further increase prices.  However, a cooling housing market should control overall household expenditures.  Economists predict that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to 5.0% in May.  Continued consumer optimism may signal further hikes this year.

Previous: In March, consumer confidence surged to the highest level in almost four years while Americans experienced the strong employment trend through the opening quarter of the year.  The index rose to a better than expected 107.2, from 102.7 in February, as employers increased American incomes.  Analysts anticipate job growth to continue to stimulate consumer spending, despite rising fuel prices and record high mortgage rates.  While the reading shows robust optimism about the current state of the economy, survey results reveal that the growth pace may level off toward the second half of the year.  The Federal Reserve raised interest rates to 4.75% as inflation remains a threat, but signaled that the central bank series of hikes may come to an end in the near term.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.