1. Australia Consumer Prices
2. UK GDP
3. US Durable Goods
4. New Zealand Rate Decision

Australia Consumer Prices (1Q) (01:30 GMT; 21:30 EST)
                    (QoQ)     (YoY)
Consensus:    0.8%     2.9%
Previous:        0.5%     2.8%

Outlook:  Consumer price inflation is expected to have picked up to a rate of 0.8% in the first quarter after dropping to its slowest pace in a year in the final quarter of 2005.  On an annual basis, the figure is anticipated to come in at 2.9%--very close to the Reserve Bank of Australiaââ,¬â"¢s upper limit of 3.0%.  In the context of a labor market that is picking up steam, anticipation of faster inflation has increased speculation that the RBA may need to raise interest rates later this year.  In March, Australiaââ,¬â"¢s unemployment rate stood at 5%, which was the lowest in nearly 3 decades.  Furthermore, the countryââ,¬â"¢s wage price index rose 4.2% in the fourth quarter of 2005*the largest gain since the inception of the index in 1997.  Being that Q1ââ,¬â"¢s index will not be compiled until May, wage price appreciation at the end of last year may draw the central bankââ,¬â"¢s attention to a possible build of inflationary pressure.  Although it is unlikely that first quarter inflation in consumer prices will prompt an immediate rate hike, chances are that the RBA will begin to entertain the thought of tightening monetary policy during their meeting in early May.  

Previous:  In the fourth quarter of 2005, Australian consumer prices inflated by 0.5%, which was the slowest rate of quarterly price inflation since the third quarter of 2004.  From the same time a year earlier, prices increased by 2.8%, in line with the Reserve Bankââ,¬â"¢s target of 2-3%.  As retailers slashed prices for clothing, cars, and computers, the RBA was able to remain lax in preventing inflation.  Traditionally, clearance sales do not begin until after the holiday season.  However, in the face of declining household spending and a slowing economy in general, companies were forced to cut prices early last year.  As a result, earnings at some companies fell as much as 5% on premature discounting.  With no significant price inflation to combat, the Reserve Bank held interest rates steady for much of 2005.  Combined with a slowing economy, this led to a 6.1% decline of the Australian dollar against its American counterpart over the year. 

UK Gross Domestic Product (1Q A) (08:30 GMT; 04:30 EST)
                    (QoQ)       (YoY)
Consensus:   0.6%         2.2%
Previous:       0.6%        1.8%

Outlook: Growth in the Europeââ,¬â"¢s second largest economy is expected to have accelerated to 2.2% on an annual basis in the first three months of the year.  If realized, it would be the strongest pace since the final quarter of 2004.  Expansion for the period will largely be found from the services industry as well as a thriving export market.  Both the services and manufacturing sector rebounded in the first quarter despite a more frugal British consumer.  Some of the strength in these two key areas can be attributed to the overall European measures.  European service and manufacturing sectors each grew at their fastest pace in 5 years.  Additionally, the strength in the global economy is expected to have benefited the UK economy with export demand.  On the other side of the equation, domestic consumption is expected to be a substantial drag on the economy.  Consumer spending, fully two-thirds of the British economy, is expected to reflect a jobless rate at a 3 year high, record levels of debt and higher fuel costs.  Despite these blatantly poor numbers, the Bank of England expects the countries growth will rebound to 2.7% for the year contingent on exports, business investment and consumer spending.  The market will follow monitor the countryââ,¬â"¢s ability to meet these projections to help predict monetary policy; but for now, a rate shift seems well off in the distance.

Previous: Gross domestic output in the UK expanded at its slowest pace in 13 years in the final quarter of 2005 as consumer demand and the housing market faded while the manufacturing sector fell into its second recession in three years. From the same period a year ago, the economy grew a reserved 1.8%.  However, on a quarterly basis, output rose 0.6% marking the largest increase for the year.  Serving the quarterly figure was the fifth consecutive rise in retail sales and the 54th consecutive quarter of expansion in the services sector.  Retail sales account for nearly 40% of overall domestic consumer consumption.  Despite this recent localized growth, greater issues were acting as an anchor on the overall expansion figure.  The $6 trillion housing market continued to cool after years of growth that previously allowed many homeowners to tap into equity in their most valuable asset.  More prominently, industrial production fell 0.6% over the period to through the sector into its second recession in only two years.  With growth limited and inflation taking broad strides toward central bankââ,¬â"¢s target rate, the Bank of England held its 4.50% lending rate policy unchanged until fluctuations in important data normalized and offered a clearer picture of the health of the economy.

US Durable Goods (MAR) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
Consensus: 1.6%
Previous: 2.7%

Outlook: Orders for big-ticketed goods should grow 1.6% last month according to economistsââ,¬â"¢ consensus.   Bookings for goods that last for three years or longer could once again be the product of volatility in transportation items.  After Februaryââ,¬â"¢s strong increase in commercial aircraft orders, a sharp rebound to normalcy may be in order.  Purchasing managers at airliners who responded to fuel prices in February likely did the same in March.  Crude oil, which fell significantly in the previous month, recovered much of its lost ground in March as geo-political tensions escalated.   Similarly, orders for automobile and auto parts could be affected by gasoline prices.  Gas prices reached a 9-month low in February after a momentous decline, however much of these losses were quickly recovered the following month in line with other energy products.  The manufacturing sector has arguably been the weakest over the past few years.  Consequently, if a recovery in orders for durable goods can materialize despite higher energy prices, the Federal Open Market Committee would have better scope to continue its hawkish interest rate regime with businesses and consumers taking the growing costs in stride.

Previous: Orders to US factories for durable goods rose to a three-month high 2.7% in February led by hot demand for commercial aircraft.   Overall transportation orders rose 13.4%.   Providing the largest contribution to the overall figure were bookings for civilian-carrying aircraft, which rose a solid 52.5% for the month as the airline industry witnessed a sizable 10% drop in the price of light crude oil.   Tempering aircraftââ,¬â"¢s strong growth however were orders automobile orders.  Vehicle bookings dropped 3.3% in February following a 3.2% contraction as higher gas prices and intensifying global competition cut into sales at showrooms.  Excluding transportation altogether, the durable goods measure fell 1.3% for the month of February, its worst posting since July.  As the core durable goods measure continues to soften, Federal monetary policy makers were met with yet another reason to rethink their aggressive policy of raising over night borrowing rates.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision (21:00 GMT; 17:00 EST)
Consensus:  7.25%
Previous:  7.25%

Outlook: Central Bank Governor Alan Bollard and his board of monetary policy officials are expected to leave the record high, benchmark-lending rate unchanged at its next meeting with very real inflation risks eclipsing concerns of a hurting economy.  New Zealandââ,¬â"¢s $97 billion dollar economy contracted in the final three months of 2005, for the first time in 5 years.  The disappointing output figure was the culmination of consumer spending trailing off with record high interest rates and confidence at a five-year low while business investment also suffered from higher borrowing rates and its respective optimism level at an equivalent five-year low.  More recent data could be offering Bollard more reason to focus on inflation rather than economic growth.  Recent indicators may suggest the first quarter could recover into positive territory.  Exports jumped 19% in February while domestic retail sales rose 1.9% for the same month.  Even business confidence has improved in March with growing concern over energy prices and continued issues with expensive borrowing.  On the other hand, consumer prices in the first quarter rose 0.7% after marking the same in the previous quarter; and conditions exist that could push it even higher in the coming months.  A record low 3.6% jobless rate along with fourth quarter wage growth at its highest level on record could easily bring consumer spending back to the forefront.  Additionally, volatile energy prices are ever looming in the background.  On March 9th, Bollard stated that he would not cut overnight lending rates until domestic consumption drops below his forecast, and given recent indicators, this doesnââ,¬â"¢t seem likely in the near future.

Previous: On March 9th, RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard acknowledged weaker corporate outlooks and economic data.  The decision to leave rates unchanged at a record high stems from the fact that household spending is only now starting to slow.  Retail sales have checked in lower than expected for the last two releases; January retail sales were flat after a decline in December.  The unemployment rate inched up by more than expected to 3.6 percent, and consumer prices appear to be growing at a moderately fast rate.  While all signs point to a slowing of New Zealandââ,¬â"¢s overheated economy, inflation remains a threat.  Wages, prices and the housing market continues to grow and will take time to correct.  However a weaker Kiwi should alleviate some pricing pressure.  The RBNZ does not expect ease monetary policy any time this year unless domestic inflation pressures slow by more than currently projected.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.