- UK Nationwide House Prices
- German Unemployment Rate
UK Nationwide House Prices (APR) (06:00 GMT; 02:00 EST)
(MoM) (YoY)
Consensus: 0.5% 5.2%
Previous: 1.1% 5.3%
Outlook: April may signal the beginning of a slowdown in the United Kingdomââ,¬â"¢s housing market resurgence with home prices expected to only increase 0.5% in comparison to Marchââ,¬â"¢s 1.1% appreciation. A much larger-than-expected surge in jobless claims over February combined with crippling utility bills may finally start to take a toll on home-buying sentiment. A decline in the number of mortgage approvals issued in February could also be a sign that consumer demand in the housing market may be facing a downturn. Although the British economy has been plodding forward ever so slowly thanks largely to a hot housing market, a housing slowdown may not be completely disastrous for the nationââ,¬â"¢s economy. A return to higher levels of consumer confidence and rapid retail spending in March may be an indication that the U.K. is ready to move forward on a rebound in consumption as opposed to a housing boom.
Previous: The U.K.ââ,¬â"¢s housing market extended its rebound in March as house prices appreciated by 1.1%, marking the eighth round of price increases in the last nine months. Unlike February, when house prices went unchanged over the month, the average cost of a home increased to *162,083 in March. In spite of a dramatic slowdown in the nationââ,¬â"¢s economy over 2005, house prices started their upward trend in the second half of the year following the Bank of Englandââ,¬â"¢s decision to cut interest rates to 4.5% in August. Amidst dawdling manufacturing growth and waning consumption levels, it seemed as though the housing market was the only thing keeping the British economy alive. In fact, in each of its policy meetings thus far this year, the BoE has specifically cited appreciating home prices as one of the factors dissuading the Bank from slashing interest rates. The Bank hopes that soaring property values will encourage consumers to spend more and trigger an economic revival.
German Unemployment Rate (APR) (07:55 GMT; 03:55 EST)
Consensus: 11.3%
Previous: 11.4%
Outlook: Germanyââ,¬â"¢s unemployment rate is likely to fall back to 11.3% as an anticipated 35,000 jobs may have been added to the nationââ,¬â"¢s economy over April. After taking a seasonal dip in March, employment levels are expected to trend higher in coming months on strong business enthusiasm and a return to warmer temperatures. Business confidence in Germany has risen to its highest level in nearly 15 years, strengthening the case that companies may be looking to expand by adding workers. With companies enjoying solid profits from abroad, investment in domestic operations is likely to pick up pace. As a result, many of the nationââ,¬â"¢s leading economic institutes have raised growth expectations to 2.1% in 2006 from less stellar estimates at the end of last year. However, leading industrialists have stated that in order for the country to see a more significant drop in the ballooned unemployment rate, more rapid growth between 2.5% and 2.8% will be necessary.
Previous: In spite of economistsââ,¬â"¢ expectations that 6,000 jobs would be added to the German economy in March, 30,000 more workers were reported to be jobless, driving the unemployment rate up to 11.4% from 11.3%. Unusually cold weather over the month deterred companies from hiring workers to complete outdoor work such as construction and gardening. Hamburg, Germanyââ,¬â"¢s second-largest city with 1.7 million inhabitants, recorded the coldest March day in 115 years when the temperature dropped to 4.5 F*. As always, high labor costs-the second-highest in Europe-continued to dissuade employers from hiring new workers. After rising to it highest level in over four years, consumer confidence in Germany may have taken a hit from Marchââ,¬â"¢s poor labor market performance. Fortunately, many regard the dip in employment levels as cyclical in nature and are expecting industrial growth to encourage a hiring rebound in coming months.
Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.