The McMillan Options Strategist Weekly |
By Lawrence G. McMillan |
Published
03/23/2018
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Options
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Unrated
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The McMillan Options Strategist Weekly
$SPX has not only violated support, but it has broken its modest uptrend line. It also has negated its pattern of higher lows. So the chart is bearish. There are potential support lelves at 2620, 2580, and 2530.
At 2530 there is the possibility that bear-killing "W" bottom could form. However, if the 2530 level doesn't hold, then you're look at closing the gap from last September at 2460, and you'll also be looking at a potentially intermediate- to long-term bear market.
Equity-only put-call ratios rolled over to sell signals as of last Monday, March 19. That was good timing.
Market breadth was negative this week, after both breadth oscillators had rolled over to sell signals late last week. As we noted at the time, in this fast-moving market, these very sensitive breadth oscillators have been good early indicators.
The volatility complex continues to provide an array of interesting indicators. $VIX is spiking higher, and that is a short-term oversold condition. However, $VIX is now in an uptrend once again. As long as that is the case, it's an intermediate-term negative for stocks.
In summary, the intermediate-term indicators are all negative, and they have generally worsened this week. While there are some short-term oversold conditions, we would not act on them until they generate completed buy signals.
Lawrence G. McMillan is the author of two best selling books on options, including Options as a Strategic Investment, and publishes several option trading newsletters.
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