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Consumers Throw Caution into the Wind
By Bill Bonner | Published  04/26/2006 | Stocks | Unrated
Consumers Throw Caution into the Wind

Look at these headlines, from the fall of 1990, taken from Peter Lynch's book, Beating the Street:

"How Safe is Your Job?"

"The Consumer Has Seen the Future, and Gotten Depressed"

"How The Real Estate Crash Threatens Financial Institutions"

"Uncertainty Rains for the U.S. Consumer"

Doesn't it seem that those headlines would fit better with today's economy? In Lynch's book, he talks about the Barron's Roundtable he took part in two months after 1987's "Great Correction":

"Mr. Zulauf set the tone in 1988 with his opening statement that 'the honeymoon, from 1982 to 1987, is over'...In between worrying about the killer bear market and the worldwide depression, we worried about the trade deficit, unemployment and the budget deficit...

"When we convened in 1990, the oft-predicted Depression was nowhere in evidence and the Dow had climbed back to 2500 points. Still, we found new reasons to stay out of stocks. There was the collapse in real estate, another calamity to add to the list. We were unsettled by the fact that after seven straight years of up markets (1987 ended with a slight gain over 1986, in spite of the Great Correction), a down market was inevitable. Here was a worry that things had been going too well!"

What? Worrying that things are going too well? That is all but unheard of in today's economy. After all, look at these headlines, collected over the last few months:

"New Home Sales Soar"

"Consumer Confidence at 4-Year High"

"Low Inflation Fosters Jobs"

"Economic Growth Heats Up"

What do you see today? Interest rates on the rise, a higher unemployment number than the government would like to admit to, skyrocketing oil prices, and, don't forget - debt, debt everywhere. And yet, consumers continue to buy gee-gaws and gadgets at Everyday Low Prices, their credit card strip becoming worn out as the days go by.

"The first half of 1982 was terrible for the stock market," continues Lynch.

"The prime rate had hit the double digits, as had inflation and unemployment. People who lived in the suburbs were buying gold and shotguns and stocking up on canned soups. Businessmen, who hadn't gone fishing in 20 years, were oiling their reels and restocking their tackle boxes, preparing for the shutdown of grocery stores."

What happened to the air of caution that prevailed in the previous decade?

You know what the old-timers say: Bull markets climb the wall of worry. And as you can see, there's no worry in the markets today.

*** Markets make opinions...and rising gas and oil prices are certainly bringing the freaks armed with their asinine ideas out of the woodwork. We're sure some of you have seen this email, or ones similar:

"By now you're probably thinking gasoline priced at about $1.50 is super cheap. Me too! It is currently $2.79 for regular unleaded in my town.

"Now that the oil companies and the OPEC nations have conditioned us to think that the cost of a gallon of gas is CHEAP at $1.50 - $1.75, we need to take aggressive action to teach them that BUYERS control the marketplace...not sellers. With the price of gasoline going up more each day, we consumers need to take action. The only way we are going to see the price of gas come down is if we hit someone in the pocketbook by not purchasing their gas! And, we can do that WITHOUT hurting ourselves.

"How?

"Since we all rely on our cars, we can't just stop buying gas. But we CAN have an impact on gas prices if we all act together to force a price war.

"Here's the idea: For the rest of this year, DON'T purchase ANYgasoline from the two biggest companies (which now are one), EXXON and MOBIL. If they are not selling any gas, they will be inclined to reduce their prices. If they reduce their prices, the other companies will have to follow suit.

"But to have an impact, we need to reach literally millions of Exxon and Mobil gas buyers. It's really simple to do!"

"I suggest that we not buy from EXXON/MOBIL UNTIL THEY LOWER THEIR PRICES TO THE $1.30 RANGE AND KEEP THEM DOWN. THIS CAN REALLY WORK."

Looks like there are a lot of people who don't understand the dynamics of supply and demand. Prices go down when people buy less of a good, prices go up when people buy more of a good, and prices go way up when demand surpasses available supply.

Economics Prof. Pat Welch of St. Louis University says any boycott of "bad guy" gasoline in favor of "good guy" brands would have some unintended (and unhappy) results.

"To meet the sudden demand," he says, "the good guys would have to buy gasoline wholesale from the bad guys, who are suddenly stuck with unwanted gasoline."

And not to be overlooked is the fact that oil companies do buy and sell from one another. Mike Right of AAA Missouri says, "If a company has a station that can be served more economically by a competitor's refinery, they'll do it."

Right adds, "In some cases, gasoline retailers have no refinery at all. Some convenience-store chains sell a lot of gasoline - and buy it all from somebody else's refinery."

Bill Bonner is the President of Agora Publishing.  For more on Bill Bonner, visit The Daily Reckoning.