- SVME Purchasing Managers Index
- Euro-zone Manufacturing PMI
- UK CIPS Manufacturing PMI
SVME Purchasing Managers Index (APR) (07:30 GMT; 03:30 EST)
Consensus: 65.2
Previous: 65.2
Outlook: The SVME Purchasing Managers Index is expected to come in at 65.2 for the second month in a row, indicating that Swiss manufacturing is pushing the nationââ,¬â"¢s economy forward at full speed. Until now, much of Switzerlandââ,¬â"¢s industrial growth has occurred in response to foreign demand. It now appears that profits made on exports are being invested domestically as Swiss companies secure new plants and equipment and hire more workers. With producer and consumer prices on the rise; the addition of sustained industrial strength, at the pace as is expected for April, could serve as impetus for higher interest rates. Swiss National Bank chief Jean-Pierre Roth has stated that given the pace of expansion in Switzerland, current interest rates cannot support price stability much longer. As such, many are betting on interest rates to move higher at each of the SNBââ,¬â"¢s policy meetings in June, September, and December.
Previous: Manufacturing in Switzerland grew at its fastest pace in nearly six years over March when the SVME Purchasing Managers Index came in at a reading of 65.2. Marchââ,¬â"¢s stellar manufacturing performance contributed to an average of 60.9 for the index through the first quarter. The last time the index read below 50 was in February 2005, suggesting that the Swiss industrial sector has been expanding since then. Much of the growth in manufacturing that has occurred over the past year has been supported by demand from abroad. Manufacturing in the Euro-zone, Switzerlandââ,¬â"¢s largest export destination, expanded at the quickest rate in over five years through March. Similarly, confidence among Japanââ,¬â"¢s manufacturers recently came in very close to one-year highs. Such fervent industrial growth within Switzerlandââ,¬â"¢s trade circle has led to a great deal of intra-industry trade, which has allowed the economy to expand on manufacturing of exportable goods.
Euro-zone Manufacturing PMI (APR) (08:00 GMT; 04:00 EST)
Consensus: 56.7
Previous: 56.1
Outlook: Economists are expecting European manufacturing growth to have picked up pace in April, with estimates of the Euro-zone manufacturing purchasing managersââ,¬â"¢ index averaging 56.7. If estimates are met or exceeded, the PMI will register the quickest rate of manufacturing expansion in five and a half years. Rapidly accelerating rates of consumption in China and India are likely to support higher levels of production. Swift manufacturing proliferation could heighten the European Central Bankââ,¬â"¢s concerns that companies will begin to increase prices and workers will start demanding higher wages, especially since oil costs have increased over 130% in the past three years. ECB officials stated in March that inflation will probably stay above the Bankââ,¬â"¢s 2% limit through 2007. Faster economic growth buoyed by manufacturing could exacerbate the inflationary situation, and move the central bank to increase rates to as high as 3.25% by the end of 2006.
Previous: Euro-zone manufacturing expanded at its fastest rate in over five years over March when the purchasing managersââ,¬â"¢ index came in at 56.1. This was the highest reading since September of 2000, suggesting that momentum in European manufacturing is building rapidly. European manufacturing companies such as Nokia and BMW raised profit forecasts on estimates that foreign demand would pick up pace this year. Although greater earnings at companies such as these have not directly sparked more hiring, it appears that unemployment levels have begun trending downward. In Germany, nearly 35,000 jobs were added to the economy over the month. The Euro-zone manufacturing PMIââ,¬â"¢s employment sub-index increased for only the second time in nearly 5 years to 50.9-the highest reading since April 2001. The initiation of a downtrend in employment in the context of faster manufacturing growth could mean broader economic expansion throughout the Euro-zone.
UK CIPS PMI Manufacturing (APR) (08:30 GMT; 04:30 EST)
Consensus: 51.3
Previous: 50.8
Outlook: Manufacturing in the U.K. is expected to have picked up pace in April as economists expect the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supplyââ,¬â"¢s purchasing managersââ,¬â"¢ index to issue a reading of 51.3. This is in line with the Confederation of British Industryââ,¬â"¢s report, which also outlined further manufacturing expansion in April. Producers in the U.K. have made significant gains in machinery and equipment production and are in the position of gaining pricing power as average factory gate prices begin to rise. While such improvement bodes well for the sector, manufacturers cannot rely on domestic demand alone if the economy as a whole is to rebound on the helms of industrial output. Export orders have been idle since last yearââ,¬â"¢s industrial slowdown. The first quarter average of the CIPS export order sub-index stood barely above 50 at 50.1. If manufacturers hope to spring back this year, they will need to realize more intense acceleration in new foreign orders.
Previous: The CIPS purchasing managersââ,¬â"¢ index fell to 50.8 in March from 51.5 in February. Although manufacturing activity declined from the previous month, the reading above 50 indicated continued growth in Britainââ,¬â"¢s manufacturing sector, which has gotten off to a better start in 2006 in comparison to the end of 2005. Much of the sectorââ,¬â"¢s growth thus far in 2006 has been a result of successful marketing activities and growing domestic demand. In spite of a gush in new orders over the month, however, manufacturer margins were tight as high energy costs threw a damper on profits. Additionally, steel, aluminum, chemical and plastic prices were relatively high on the month. The surveyââ,¬â"¢s input price sub-index registered an inflated 64.5 in comparison to an output price index of 55.1. To combat the crippling input costs, British producers continue heavy operational restructuring and are holding off on increasing employment levels, the sub-index of which stood below 50 at 48.3.
Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.