EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ EUR/USD held above the previous dayââ,¬â"¢s low yesterday and again closed above 1.2600, further emphasizing the extent of dollar bearishness.  However, the pair does remain contained by the 50% fibo of 1.3668-1.1642 at 1.2654.  A break above targets the high from Monday at 1.2688 after which the 4/14/2005 low of 1.2767 is exposed.  Long term prospects are bullish as evidenced by new 2006 highs, sustained breaks of trendlines, and shorter moving averages trading above longer moving averages (10 > 20 > 50 > 100 > 200).  The bullish bias is intact unless the 4/6 high of 1.2331 is breached.

USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ USD/JPY continues trading sub 114.00 but intraday charts such as hourly and dealer continue to show positive divergence with oscillators and give scope to a corrective move.  Also, a positive stochastic cross with fast stochastic rising above the slow one on the daily suggests strength going forward.  Resistance comes in at the 5/2 high of 114.00 with a break above targeting the 38.2% fibo of 118.82-112.34 at 114.80.  Although the pair has recently bounced off of the lower Bollinger band on the daily, the strength of the downtrend should be respected so any short term bullishness warrants caution.  A break below the 112.33 low targets the 8/31/05 high at 111.78.

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ Cable continues to trade along its upper Bollinger band and recaptured losses suffered on Monday.  The pair traded higher in Tokyo trading tonight before encountering and failing at the 61.8% fibo of 1.9323-1.7043 at 1.8450.  That level remains initial resistance going forward with a break targeting the 9/5/2005 high at 1.8501.  The past 4 days have seen over 600 pips of uninterrupted gains and daily oscillators suggest that the move is overextended.  Support stems from the 4/28 high of 1.8242 as well as the38.2% fibo of 1.7247-1.8477 at 1.8009.  Still, the uptrend is intact unless the pair breaks below the 1/25 and 4/19 highs at 1.7934.

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ Holding below 1.2400, USD/CHF remains supported by the 50% fibo of 1.1283-1.3286 at 1.2284.  The pair came close to testing the 1.2285 low made on Friday but was held up at 1.2293.  Still, the sequence can be labeled as a short term double bottom, and if it holds then support comes in at yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s high of 1.2447.  A break below the 1.2285 low would target the 9/5/05 low at 1.2236.  Strength beyond yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s high exposes the 23.6% fibo of 1.3235-1.2284 at 1.2509.

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ The freight train known as the Canadian Dollar continues to rally.  The pair has hardly even stalled as supports such as the November 1991 low of 1.1189 and the 138.2% fibo of 1.1297-1.1771 at 1.1116.  The 161.8% fibo of the 1.1297-1.1771 March bull wave comes in at 1.1005 and is the next estimate for support   A bounce higher off of the lower Bollinger band on the daily targets the Tokyo high of 1.1082 followed by yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s high of 1.1166.

AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œ The Australian dollar is as strong as the great white shark this morning after distancing itself from the 61.8% fibo of .7985-.7014 at .7613 and trading above the .7700 figure.  The pair is rapidly approaching a resistance zone bound y the 9/21/05 high and 9/12/05 high at 1.7729/62.  A break there exposes the confluence of the 6/21/05, 6/22/05 highs / 138.2% fibo of .7585-.7014 at .7802/08.  Support comes in from the 5/1 high at .7636 and then the 5/2 low at .7551.

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ Kiwi is following in the footsteps of its big brother (AUD) and has challenged Mondayââ,¬â"¢s high tonight at .6425.  The rise from .5991 has been slow and dissimilar to the rapid freefall to .5991, suggesting that in the longer term, the impulse moves are down and the corrective waves up.  Resistance is just above at the 38.2% fibo of .7197-.5991 at .6450 and the 3/15 and 3/16 highs at .6468/71.  The dealer chart shows negative divergence with RSI and as such gives scope to a move down, possible to the 4/24 high at .6371.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.