AUD/CAD -- AUD/CAD has traded in a range the past week primarily between .8512 and .8400. The pair looks bullish at the moment however for two reasons. One, there is an inverse head and shoulders reversal on the daily and the pair has broken the neckline today. Two, the pair has formed an ascending triangle on the hourly / dealer chart. Last week, we mentioned that â,"The hourly shows that the pair is trading in an ascending triangle with the upper flat line at .8500 and the ascending supporting line at around .8415.â, this weekâ,"s low has been .8407 and we are currently trading near the 50% fibo of .8824-.8207 at .8515, a daily close above would bolster the bullish bias. Daily oscillators are bullish as well with rising RSI, MACD > 0 and DMI + crossing DMI -.
AUD/JPY â,“ AUD/JPY also ranged until today, and the pair has traded up through 87.00 and to a downward sloping resisting trendline that dates to December 2005. Zooming back and taking a forming a big picture look, it looks like the pair is currently trading within a 6 month head and inverse head and shoulders pattern. A break of the mentioned resisting trendline (also the neckline) would complete the pattern and offer a bullish bias. Until that happens, there is of course the possibility of choppy trading down towards the 4/25 low at 85.00.
AUD/NZD â,“ â,"Since correcting from the 1.2015 high made on 4/11â,¦oscillators are bullish as evidenced by a positive MACD cross near 0 and an increasing RSIâ, was the view last week and price action has panned out as planned with the pair back above 1.1900 and even piercing the 1.2000 figure in Tokyo trading last night. A break above the 1.2015 high made on 4/11 targets the 127% fibo of 1.1788-1.0425 at 1.2150. Having recently traded down from viciously overbought levels, daily oscillators are again rising but the break below overbought levels warrants caution. The 20 SMA at 1.1870 is initial support with additional weakness exposing the 4/26 low at 1.1814 in the event of a rejection at the previous high of 1.2015.
Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.