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Dollar Puts Out Confusing Signals
By James Mound | Published  04/22/2005 | Currency , Futures | Unrated
Dollar Puts Out Confusing Signals

Energies
Crude found strong support just below $50 and the market made efforts this week to erase some bearishness in the market.  As an energy bear I see this as an anticipated bounce that has little life left to it.  I continue to recommend selling call premium and am currently looking at $60-$62 calls for June for optimum volatility premium collection.  Heating oil and unleaded gas lacked the follow through momentum you would expect to see after a strong week in crude and fairly bullish inventory data, so look for those markets to experience heavy downside if and when crude resumes its down trend.

Financials
Woohoo!  Volatility is back in a big way, with back to back massive moves in the market this week suggesting the stock market is ready to get up and go!  I remain a true long term bear, but one must look at this week's action as bullish rather than bearish, with the market needing to get to fresh lows quickly to avoid a true momentum reversal to the upside.  Either way a dead market appears to be coming back to life.  Bonds are shifting in correlation and will be very dependant on the stock market action as long as the big swings keep coming.  Bonds at 114 and change is just too high given the fundamentals - despite the minutes from last week I remain a bond bear.  Puts are dirt cheap with some serious economic news on the horizon.  The dollar certainly looks to make a fool out of me as the market appears more like its in the beginning of a channel/pennant rather than a bull breakout.  The gut still screams that its all just a show for the faint at heart and the bull breakout is just around the corner.  With that said, the yen and Canadian dollar are my favorite shorts.

Grains
Dying grain volatility and choppy trading are great signs of a market awaiting a true trend.  Bottom line is grains are a value and should be at a higher premium for this time of year.  Buy futures and use puts as protection.

Meats
Cattle just doesn't want to budge.  I mean we are past choppy trade and past a consolidation pennant.  This market just doesn't want to go anywhere.  I will stay macro and continue to remain a mortgage the farm bear in this market.  Hogs and bellies are still intermediate term bearish.

Metals
Gold remains choppy ahead of a confirmed dollar move.  Silver is showing signs of increased volatility and I am a fan of a 1 by 3 ratio call credit spread for July (750 & 800 calls) for about 12 cents on a bounce.  Copper is showing signs of breaking down, but has a ways to go to convince me.  Palladium is a buy with stops around 175.

Softs
OJ's failure should be taken as a buying opportunity, even forgetting the great fundamentals.  Take a look at the price action history in this market.  If it was going to collapse it would have done it already.  Buy OTM calls on the cheap.  Coffee gave us the retracement I was waiting for and resumed a strong rally with two mid-day reversals that make this bull happy to be long once again - watch out $2!  Cocoa is a buy around 1450.  Cotton is setting up for a fall.  Lumber is still a short with a 310 near term target (yes, I said 310).  Sugar is a buy with a double stop reversal below the recent lows.

James Mound, owner of JMTG Brokerage LLC, MoundReport.com and author of the book 7 Secrets, writes the Weekend Commodities Review Newsletter. Receive your free weekly subscription to the Weekend Review by e-mail. Click here.