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Forex Economic Alerts for May 5
By John Kicklighter | Published  05/4/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Forex Economic Alerts for May 5
  1. Australian Trade Balance
  2. Canadian Net Change In Employment
  3. US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Australian Trade Balance (MAR) (01:30 GMT; 21:30 EST)
Consensus:  -A$1.300B
Previous:  -A$0.595B

Outlook: The Australian trade shortfall is expected to swell in March to A$1.3 billion after a particularly damaging cyclone season slows down the gait in the export market.  March was a hit in the wallet for Australian exporters as a series of cyclones off the northwestern coast of the country shut down ports and oilrigs.  Some resource producers have reported significant declines in output due to these and other extraordinary circumstance.  Rio Tinto, the world's second largest iron ore exporter said its production dropped 20% over the first quarter form the same period a year ago.  This is particularly frustrating for the economy since RBA Governor Ian McFarlane forecasted a robust export market would be the redeemer for GDP that hit a four-year low pace last year.  Some predict that after the effects of the storm season are shrugged off, mines will be able to shed their recent sluggish pace and use the benefit of higher commodity prices to accelerate their recover.  By the central bank's account, key Australia raw materials are at their highest level in 24 years.  Exports will be central factor in carrying economic growth in the months to come as consumer spending stalls and the manufacturing sector is hurt by an expensive currency, especially given the case that monetary officials decided to raise the benchmark lending rate 25 basis points at its meeting on Tuesday.

Previous: Australia's trade deficit plunged from a 15-month high A$2.476 billion gap in January to a nearly four year low A$595 million shortfall in February.  Providing the source of the favorable shift was a huge 10% jump in export value to A$16.8 billion together with a 2% drop in imports to A$17.4 billion.   Leading to the significant acceleration in the shipments abroad for the period was undoubtedly the result of several key Western Australian ports reopening after a series of storms left them inoperable.  Excluding the wild fluctuation in output numbers from such abnormal factors, the general rise in exports may also be the by product of recent firm investment in expanding capacity to meet steadily rising demand from sources such as China.  Despite the unexpectedly positive shift in the trade gap, there remained skeptics.  For one, the late nature of the report for February's balance, had already stoked expectations for the following month as the tropical cyclone season picked back up.   Furthermore, the consistently expensive Australian currency against some of its largest trade partners have created an additional burden to an already hurting exporter that must compete with much more staunch competition.

Canadian Net Change in Employment (APR) (11:00 GMT; 07:00 EST)
Consensus: 15.0K
Previous:  50.5K

Outlook:  Expectations of another 15,000 additional workers added to Canadian firms would produce the forth-consecutive month of increase in payrolls, lending to expectations that domestic demand is slowly replacing Canada's export-dependency for growth.   Developments in April seemed to exacerbate the position of those areas of the economy that are falling behind while simultaneously, there is little in the way of expectations for a huge rise in any one area.  Two areas that could stand to continue to benefit for the period are retailers and energy producers.  Oil and natural gas companies have continuously plowed money into their facilities and human capital in order to extend their limited capacities in the face of surging demand and prices of their product.  Notably, oil prices rose to a record high for the month after a strong 12% appreciation trend for the period.  However, the rising value of the country's currency issued worries for firms that depend on export revenues.  Canada's currency rose to a 28-year high against the US dollar, the owner of which is Canada's largest trading partner.  In the face of the rising currency rate, the test of whether Canadian growth and employment can be maintained by domestic demand will come to an abrupt conclusion.   If job growth can hold out as exports begin to slow; the market, and perhaps the Bank of Canada, may be convinced that growth and inflation are no longer just dependant on the flux in the export market.

Previous:  Canadian employers took on a net 50,500 new workers to their payrolls in March as capacity restraints forced firms to expand their production capabilities where they can.  The unexpectedly large swell in the number of new positions for the period further pushed different employment measures to record breaking levels.  First, and most apparent to the currency market, was the drop in the unemployment rate to 6.3%, the lowest the gauge has been in 31 years.  On the opposite side of the equation, the employment rate, a measure of the population of working age citizens that is currently employed, rose to 62.9%, its highest level on record.  Some of the star performing sectors for the month were builders, hospitals and oil producers who hired twice as many people as expected.  The only laggard for the month was the repeat offender, the manufacturing sector.  Manufacturers were forced to lay off a net 12,000 employees in March as a currency at its highest level in 14 years cut into export revenues.

US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (APR) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
Consensus: 200K
Previous:  211K

Outlook:  The market consensus for April's change in the number of employed in the world's largest economy is a duplicate of March's expected 200,000.  For April the support began to pile up behind expectations for the 32nd month of a net increase in jobs.  The most immediate data available for interpretation were the initial and continuing jobless claims that have been released so far for the month.  While both figures increased for their most recent report, the trends in the figures are presenting a different picture.   A four-week moving average of first time claims rested at 308,500, consistent with healthy labor market growth.  More favorable, however, was the same period average for continuing claims that dropped to a five-year low 2.43 million citizens.  Elsewhere, the ISM manufacturing and services indices revealed in both of their employment sub-index gauges that employment conditions improved for the month of April.  If job growth can hold onto its steady pace of 150,000 plus additions each month, the implications for consumer-driven inflation could prove green Fed Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke's suggestion that rate hikes are about to slow, premature.

Previous:  The US economy added 211,000 jobs in March led by trends in the service sector.  Service-based firms like banks, retailers and travel agencies added 202,000 new employees to the payrolls, while those in the construction arena took on 7000 following February's 37,000 new hires.  Lagging behind once again, manufacturers dismissed a net 5,000 current employees.  Overall, this third month of the year represents the best quarter for hiring in since the same three-month period in 2000.   Additionally, the most recent addition of jobs to the labor market has pushed the jobless rate to a 4-year high 4.7%, lending to concerns that the economy, running near full capacity according to Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig, could push inflation for months to come.  Hourly wage growth has already grown 0.3% per month in the first quarter; representing the strongest such pace in the read since 2001.  April's strong employment numbers merely eased the Fed Reserve's circle of monetary policy officials' decision to raise the overnight lending rate yet again for the month to its current 4.75% level.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.