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Market Choppiness Looks to Continue
By Toni Hansen | Published  04/25/2005 | Futures , Stocks | Unrated
Market Choppiness Looks to Continue

Good day! I hope you had a nice, relaxing weekend. The market hasn't been particularly exciting lately as risk remains higher. We saw that continue on Friday where we got the trading range we were expecting going into the day, but it was at a lower level than was ideal for an upside continuation. Instead the indices gapped down into the open, creating stronger bearish pace to begin the day. Then the market fell into a range heading into lunch, with the NASDAQ as the weakest compared to the SP500 and Dow Jones Ind. Ave.

 

This narrow range trading made for a slow morning. After hitting lows, however, the market began to correct from them at a much more gradual pace than the initial drop. This allowed for a bit of a breakdown over noon, but the NASDAQ, which was already weaker, fared the best on its descent while the SP500 only barely made new lows. The drop brought the NASDAQ into its 5 minute 200 sma support and support from the prior day's opening prices. The level held very well and the market pulled back up into the afternoon.

Initially the upside pace was pretty decent off mid-day lows, but it slowed going into the 14:00 ET reversal period. Volume remained light and the 15 minute 20 and 200 sma overhead in the indices held as strong resistance. We didn't see any smaller time frame setups for a breakdown on the 1-2 minute charts, but the follow through on the larger short setup was very strong. The market didn't even manage a full 5 minute bear flag before it continued on the 2 minute charts into the 15:00 ET reversal period. This strong selling lasted until the SP500 hit the prior day's lows with the last reversal period of the day at 15:30. At that point we saw a bit of a retracement off the selling as the market came back into the zone of the prior breakdown on the 2 min. charts.

Due to the strong selling on Friday afternoon, I no longer feel we have room for a 60 minute cup with handle just yet on the indices. Instead it is looking to hold closer to lows than I was expecting Thursday evening. I will not rule out the potential for the pace to pick up on the upside, but right now I just am not seeing an intraday pattern to allow for it to happen yet. I have a good list of swingtrade shorts that are forming, but none look quite ready and that supports my view that we'll see more of a correction off last week's lows before we see more selling. PETC, AET, WLT, YELL and UVN are things I will be watching over the next week or so for more downside. PETC is the only one with good odds for Monday though. The rest would be better if they can continue to base for another week. For longs, I'll be watching PENN and TIVO on Monday and ASKJ and AAP over the next couple of weeks.

Economic Reports and Events
Apr 25: Existing Home Sales for mar (10:00 am)
Apr 26: Consumer Confidence for Apr (10:00 am), New Home Sales for Mar (10:00 am)
Apr 27: Durable Orders for Mar (8:30 am)
Apr 28: Chain Deflator-Adv. For Q1 (8:30 am), GDP-Adv. For Q1 (8:30 am), Initial Claims 04/23 (8:30 am), Help-Wanted Index for Mar (10:00 am)
Apr 29: Employment Cost Index for Q1 (8:30 am), Personal Income for Mar (8:30 am), Personal Spending for Mar (8:30 am), Mich. Sentiment-Rev. for Apr (9:45 am), Chicago PMI for Apr (10:00 am)
May 02: Construction Spending for Mar (10:00 am), ISM Index for Apr (10:00 am)
May 03: Factory Orders for Mar (10:00 am), Auto Sales for Apr (12:00 am), Truck Sales for Apr (12:00 am), FOMC policy announcement (2:15 pm)

Earnings Announcements of Interest
Only stocks with an average daily volume of 500K+ are listed. List may not be complete so be sure to always check your stocks' earnings dates before holding a position overnight. (A) = Earnings after the close, (B) = Earnings before the open, (?) = Earnings time not specified at the time of this writing
Apr 25: ALTR (4:15 pm ET), ABNK (A), AMX (A), ACF (A), ACI (B), ASH (B), ATHR (?), AUDC (A), AVNX (A), BEAV (B), BYD (A), CD (A), CNET (A), CAM (B), XRAY (A), DST (A), ETR (B), EXC (A), GLK (A), HMY (05:30 am ET), HBAN (B), KMB (B), MSPD (A), PCL (A), PVN (?), SBC  (B), SEPR (?), SLAB (A), SII (?), STK (A), SWFT (A), BNK (B), TRI (A), ZMH (A)
Apr 26: ABGX (A), ACE (A), AAI (B), AKS (B), AW (?), AXP (?), AGP (A), ABI (B), ASN (B), ATML (A), AUO (B), BJS (B), BOW (B), BP (02:00 am ET), EAT (B), BC (B), CHRW (?), COH (B), CVG (?), GLW (A), CFC (B), CK (B), ESV (B), EQR (B), ESRX (A), FNF (B), FPL (B), TV (A), HRS (A), HMA (?), INSP (A), LLL (B), LVLT (?), LXK (B), LMT (?), MSO (B), MHS (B), MNST (B), NVTL (A), OXY (?), PENN (B), PNR (B), PDG (?), PPP (?), RFMD (A), ROK (B), SLE (B), SLB (B), SNWL (?), SO (B), SNV (?), TMX (A), MHP (B), TSM (?), UST (?), VRTX (A), VFC (?), VIGN (B), WAT (B), WBSN (A), WWY (?), XL (A)
Apr 27: APD (B), AKAM (A), AGN (?), AHC (B), AMKR (A), BUD (?), ARRS (A), ASKJ (?), BHI (B), BDX (B), CDN (?), CTX (A), CHIR (A), CRUS (A), CTSH (?), CL (?), CYH (A), COP (B), CEG (B), CORI (A), COCO (B), DO (B), DRIV (A), DRE (A), ECA (?), ETS (A), EOG (B), EOP (A), ERES (A), GRMN (B), GMR (A), GRP (B), HP (B), HMT (B), ISSX (A), ISIL (A), JDSU (A), JP (A), KCI (B), KOMG (A), LAB (B), LPNT (A), LPX (B), LSI (A), MCHP (A), MUR (A), NBR (A), NEM (?), NSC (?), ONNN (A), OKE (A), OPWV (?), PMTC (B), PD (B), PCLE (A), PLUG (B), PX (B), PHM (A), STR (A), COL (B), RSAS (A), SANM (A), SEBL (A), SKM (B), SWKS (A), SOHU (A), SBUX (?), STN (?), SPRT (A), TIN (B), BA (B), TMO (B), TDW (B), UPL (?), UMC (B), UHS (?), VAR (A), VZ (B), VC (B), WLP (06:00 am ET), WON (A), XEL (B)

Toni Hansen is President and Co-founder of the Bastiat Group, Inc., and runs the popular Trading From Main Street. She can be reached at Toni@tradingfrommainstreet.com.