EUR/AUD â�,�“ We mentioned last week that â�,�A break below [1.6500] negates the bullish implications from the double bottom and targets the 50% fibo of the bull wave from 1.5609 at 1.6359.â�,�  The pair broke below the 1.6500 figure on Wednesday and made its low yesterday a hair above the 50% fibo level of 1.5609-1.7112 at 1.6359.  The pair is in a corrective 4th wave currently and wave rules state that the pair must hold above 1.6394 in order to begin an impulse 5th wave up.  If the pair falls below 1.6390, then the count is wrong and current bullish implications are no longer.  The pair currently trades right at resistance of 1.6500, and a break above would expose the 38.2% fibo of 1.7113-1.6364 at 1.6649.

EUR/CAD â�,�“ The euro and Canadian Dollar have battled this week, as the pair fell a decent amount early in the week but has since recovered nicely to trade back above 1.400.  The pair still trades right at its 40 week moving average of which a break above is needed to challenge the previous high of 1.4362 made on 4/4.  The weekly and daily charts both show a long term inverse head and shoulders reversal pattern that has been forming since September 2005.  The right shoulder is higher than that of the left, which is an indication of strength.  Also, the neckline intersects with the 40 week SMA at current levels making the 1.4050 to 140.89 zone all the more important as current resistance.  A close above the zone targets the 4/28 high at 1.4162.  A failure results in the pair falling back into the range with the 50% fibo of 1.3494-1.4361 at 1.3927 as support.

EUR/NZD â�,�“ The decline from the 4/4 high at 2.0226 has seen mostly deliberate declines but quick moves up, suggesting that overall direction is still up.  Additionally, a medium term downward sloping resisting trendline that began on 4/4 has just recently been breached, giving scope to strength towards the 4/25 high at 1.9952.  Oscillators on the daily are neutral but the 10 day SMA did just cross back above the 20 day, showing increased momentum to the upside.  In the event that the pair continues to digest the gains made through the beginning of the year, look for support at the 5/3 low of 1.9585 and the 4/21 low at 1.9406.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.