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Non-Farm Payrolls a Shocker Forcing Dollar Lower Again
By Kathy Lien | Published  05/5/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Non-Farm Payrolls a Shocker Forcing Dollar Lower Again

Non-Farm Payrolls rose a measly 138k in the month of April, disappointing bulls that were calling for a 200k rise.  The March figure was also revised lower from 211k to 200k causing the EUR/USD to jump 70 points the moments after the release as the FX market now accentuates the negative in  US economic releases and minimizes the positive.  As far as it goes now, there is little reason for any traders to remain dollar bulls.  The lackluster employment figure in the context of stronger economic data leading up to it such as the ISM and durable goods reports suggests that US growth may be hitting a brick wall.

Nevertheless, there were some inflationary figures within the report, most notably, average hourly earning rose by 0.5% vs. 0.3% expected and average weekly hours gained to 33.9 vs 33.8 expected, suggesting that despite the tamer figure, wage pressures are beginning to assert themselves.  This paves the way for at least one more rate hike by the Federal Reserve.  Anything beyond becomes data dependent.

Kathy Lien is the Chief Currency Strategist at FXCM.