Energies
A volatile week in energies developed a surprising head and shoulders on a daily and is technically setup to fall.  The crude chart from two weeks ago suggested a wide range for a potential top, with the recent resistance being the first potential topping out point.  My gut said that consolidation around this price range meant another leg up, but the technical formation is quite bearish.  A break below 69.20 is a very solid technical confirmation of a bear retracement ahead.

Financials
The stock market broke through the contract highs and a fairly impressive technical topping pattern that had developed prior to Fridayââ,¬â"¢s surge.  This surge was mainly due to a lower than anticipated unemployment report that had many feeling that this weekââ,¬â"¢s Fed meeting would be a ââ,¬Ëœone and doneââ,¬â"¢ in regards to continued rate hikes.  Hooey!  The Fed isnââ,¬â"¢t done and the bond market was due for a bounce, which may continue heading into the early part of next week.  Buy bear put spreads in the S&P and, if you can get a short play slapped on around 108-16 on the 30 year, consider yourself lucky.  Cheap puts are also recommended ahead of the FOMC announcement.  The dollar broke critical 8570 support and there isnââ,¬â"¢t much holding it up here.  However, I have rarely seen the US dollar succumb to such an oversold condition and ugly chart formation without seeing an unexpected reversal.  While my dollar bullish was hurt by this past weekââ,¬â"¢s price action I suspect that the market will find strength and reverse an ugly technical setup.  Buy euro puts.

Grains
Grains ended strong this week and the market is running out of time to retrace ahead of a summer rally.  Nevertheless I would look for strong selloffs in the grains next week and be stand aside until the market pulls back at least 5%.  If we donââ,¬â"¢t get the price pullback in the next three weeks then I say get long regardless, but the gut says there is a better entry price just around the corner.

Meats
Same setup as last week so no need to change the forecast.  Cattle broke back down to double bottom support and the bottom line is you can throw your fundamentals out the window ââ,¬â€œ if we close below 72.50 on the June contract then watch the floodgates reopen.  I am near term long and reversing if we close below that mark.  The hog market continues to be resilient and a good bull setup is confirmed on a break and close above 67.80.  I would double my longs and trail my stops to 63.80.

Metals
Metals had significant declining volatility and a consolidation pattern form this past week.  Look for a major technical shift next week and either a break to new highs or a failure.  The market technicals say new highs, but as you all know by now I say failure.  Copper has an interesting setup.  Lock limit moves on major supply issues, mining strikes and market hysteria place this market in a far more ridiculous price point than any of the major metals and when the industry starts talking about a minimum of 2 years before any major supply improvements I start thinking ââ,¬â€œ SELL!  Put buying here is costly but will be rewarded if the market turns.  Copper is overdue for a silver like one day plunge and a major spike in OTM put premiums.

Softs
OJ spiked to new highs and looks very bullish.  Time to buy some contrarian cheap OTM  puts looking for some profit taking ahead of the summer hurricane rally.  I suppose the question to ask is, are we already in the summer hurricane rally?  If so I am way behind the curve.  Coffee had consecutive ugly selloff days on light volume and low intraday volatility.  This is a shakeout and a great buying opportunity (reference the Trade of the Month).  Cotton remains ugly and I continue to be aggressively buying puts and selling calls on any price bounce.  Cocoa just canââ,¬â"¢t breakout above 1550, but calls are still the play here.  Sugar is building upside momentum, but the intraday price action begs for long strangles as the out of the money options are cheap and sugar isnââ,¬â"¢t going to hang around this price range much longer.  Lumber is still a sell.

James Mound is the head analyst for www.MoundReport.com, and author of the commodity book 7 Secrets. For a free email subscription to James Mound's Weekend Commodities Review and Trade of the Month, click here.