EUR/JPY â,“ The euro continues to fall rapidly as the pair approaches a support zone bound by the 50% fibo of 137.26-145.49 / 4/25 low at 141.38/47. The pair has broken a supporting trendline that dates to late February (2/27). A break below the 141.38/47 zone targets the confluence of the 3/28 low / 38.2% of 130.59-145.49 at 139.71/81. Hourly oscillators are oversold so a corrective bounce is not out of the question. Resistance comes in at the 4/27 low and 5/1 low at 142.07 and 142.56, respectively.
EUR/CHF â,“ EUR/CHF hovers at the confluence of its lower Bollinger band on the daily / 50% fibo of 1.5292-1.5843 at 1.5579. A break below targets the 61.8% fibo at 1.5508. The consolidation after the move from 1.5821-1.5589 has taken place in a diagonal that moves with the overall trend and thus looks like a wave 2 as part of a larger wave 3 from 1.5821. Fibonacci extensions of wave 1 (1.5853-1.5632) from the top of wave 2/beginning of wave 3 (1.5821) target 1.5517 (1.5821 â,“ 138.2% * (1.5853-1.5632)) and 1.5464 (1.5821 â,“ 161.8% * (1.5853-1.5632)). A contra move challenges the 5/4 high at 1.5645.
EUR/GBP â,“ Last weekâ,"s commentary that â,"Oscillators on the daily are sloping down and DMI â,“ is about to cross above DMI +, which bolsters the bearish outlookâ, proved correct and EUR/GBP has traded through both the 38.2% and 50% fibos of .6893 and .6860 and now trades near .6850. The wave structure is nearly identical to that of EUR/CHF and extensions of wave 1 (.7020-.6888) from the end of wave 2/beginning of wave 3 (.6980) at .6798 (.6980 â,“ 138.2% * (.7020-.6888)) and .6767 (.6980 â,“ 161.8% * (.7020-.6888)). However, EUR/GBP is also supported by the 200 day SMA at .6839 and a bounce could send price to possible support at the 3/28 low of .6868 and 4/19 low of .6888.
Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.