1. UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor
2. German Industrial Production

UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (APR) (23:01 GMT; 19:01 EST)
Consensus:  n/a
Previous:  1.6%

Outlook: The BRC Retail Sales Monitor, a survey of retailers that offers an early look into the sector ahead of the nationwide, government indicator, was confronted with conflicting factors last month.   Though no consensus for the survey was offered, consumer sentiment, similar indicators and a pervasive underlying trend will influence the sales monitor for April.  One promising facet for sales over the month was the attitudes of consumers.  Confidence in the sector rose to match a three-month high over the same period according to the GfK gauge.   This will complement slowing producer output prices well.  Prices received from factories for their goods fell 2.4% on an annual basis while rising 0.6% from the month before, far short of the 1.5% expected.  With factories having to swallow higher costs through their production factors, retailers can be expected to do the same to preserve sales volume and draw cautious consumer into stores.  Another promising indication of stronger retail activity comes from the Confederation of British Industry's measure of the same matter.  According to the indicator, those reporting higher sales outpaced observation of lower purchases output at its highest rate in 14 months.  Consumer spending will be a considerable element in any rebound in the economy for the coming quarters, and therefore monetary policy officials will monitor its health for evidence that lower interest rates may be necessary.

Previous: Retail sales grew a stronger than expected 1.6% in March as consumers defied higher utility bills and an expanding jobless rate to drive their sector on.  One of the largest draws on consumer incomes over the month were rising utility bills that were boosted by higher crude oil and natural gas prices whose increases were partially laid out for citizens digest.  Sentiment issues were also setting the industry up for a poorer showing.  The economy was experiencing the highest unemployment in three years, debts were rising to near record levels and taxes were on the rise.  All together, these factors have to some degree proven Bank of England MPC member Stephen Nickell's claims, at each of the policy meetings since December, that consumer spending was going to suffer in the months to come if overnight lending rates were not reduced.  According to the Office of National Statistics calculations, retail sales in the first three months of the year have fallen 0.7%, the
first drop since February 2005.    Though sales improved for the month, the underlying trend in the sector has shown obvious moderation that could leave one of the key drivers for economic growth floundering.

German Industrial Production (MAR) (10:00 GMT; 06:00 EST)
                   (MoM)  (YoY)
Consensus:    0.4%   6.8%
Previous:       1.0%   6.4%

Outlook:  Returning to its normal report schedule, industrial production figures for March are expected to report slower growth in March of 0.4% as input prices bloat and German factories struggle to pass the burden on.  Year-over-year, prices for materials bought at the factory level rose to 5.9%, matching the largest annual increase in 24 years.  As is obvious from the much more reserved 1.2% rise in the core index - excluding energy goods - much of the burden to producers is coming from crude oil that has averaged over $65 for the past 6 months. Regardless of the source of the additional burden, factories are still hesitant to pass the costs onto their clients and the consumer.  The end consumer however may be signaling that the additional costs could be tolerated with consumer confidence rising to over four year highs and the unemployment rate checking back.  Additional support for industrial activity for the month is coming from orders for the same month.  Manufacturing orders reported a 15% annual gain for the month primarily due to healthy foreign demand leading to a 26.2% rise in exports for the same period.  With the current pace of inflation at the producer-level enduring combined with dwindling opportunities to cut costs, higher prices will eventually have to be passed onto the consumer.  Price growth for the dozen nations sharing the euro was already at 2.2% for the month, and the additional push will likely necessitate further policy constraints in the months to come.

Previous:  The Federal Statistics office, was forced to delay its measure of factory activity in March as a strike in the country's most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia, caused trouble for the surveyors.  After the production numbers were finally released, it shown that factory activity actually rose 1%, the third consecutive month of expansion.  The rise was being attributed to foreign demand from the countries with strong economies as well as those that are emerging.  No matter which group orders are coming from, the need for German-produced goods seemed certain.  Orders for plant and machinery rose 9% in March from a year before, while domestic orders jumped 10% over the same period.  Furthermore, investment goods over the month gained 2.1% and those for machinery in a month's time advanced 3%.  However, the most influential component of orders rested with energy production.   On a monthly, energy production rose 3.7% in March, as producers looked to benefit from rising prices of the necessary good.  All together, the German economy is expected to accelerate for the year after 0.9% expansion last year, with domestic spending and business leading the way.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.