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Australian Dollar Crosses Are Mixed
By Jamie Saettele | Published  05/10/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Australian Dollar Crosses Are Mixed

AUD/CAD â,“ AUD/CAD had looked bullish last week and did make gains before being rejected at the confluence of the upper Bollinger band on the daily /2/17 high at .8575.  After a double doji on the daily (5/5, 5/8), the pair has fallen back to the .8500 handle.  Gains are still possible if the pair can hold a medium term trendline from 3/2 that sites near .8460.  Also disconcerting to bulls is that daily oscillators are turning over.  A break below the mentioned trendline at .8460 targets the 5/3 low at .8407 followed by the 61.8% fibo of .8209-.8575 at .8349.  Initial resistance is at the 5/5 high of .8575.

AUD/JPY â,“ AUD/JPY made a medium term double top with the 4/19 and 4/20 highs on 5/4 and 5/5 at 87.75.  The pair has quickly fallen through both the 87.00 and 86.00 figures but has found support at the lower Bollinger band on the daily at 85.20.  Negative momentum and CCI now < 0 shift the bias towards bears.  A daily close below the 4/25 low at 85.00 would reinforce the bearish outlook and expose the 61.8% fibo of 82.05-87.82 at 84.25.

AUD/NZD â,“ We liked AUD/NZD prospects last week when we mentioned that â,"oscillators are bullish as evidenced by a positive MACD cross near 0 and an increasing RSIâ,¦A break above the 1.2015 high made on 4/11 targets the 127% fibo of 1.1788-1.0425 at 1.2150.â,  But the pair has blown by 1.2015 and has tested 1.2400 today.  Viewing the vicious rally from the 12/5/05 low at 104.87, we can see 5 fairly distinct waves with the current one as a 5th wave.  Fifth waves are often a Fibonacci multiple of first waves.  As such, wave 1 = 1.0487-1.1112 = 625 pips.  Starting wave 5 at the 4/13 low of 1.1664 and adding 138.2% * 625 pips and 161.8% * 625 pips projects the end of the wave 5 at 1.2608 and 1.2774, which also happen to be resistance areas on a chart from November 2001 highs and the 6/14/01 high at 1.2765.  A failure of the rally faces support at todayâ,"s low of 1.2229 and the former high and breakout point from the 4/11 high at 1.2015.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.