1. German GDP
2. US Advanced Retail Sales

German Gross Domestic Product (1Q P) (06:00 GMT; 02:00 EST)
                   (MoM)  (YoY)
Consensus:   0.6%  2.8%
Previous:       0.0%  1.0%

Outlook:  First quarter output in Europe's largest economy is expected to see a huge rebound from the stagnant state of the economy in the final three months of last year.   Representing the first quarter of normalization in the economy after the big shock caused by soaring energy prices, output over the period is expected to have been driven by exports as well as firm investment.  German products destined for foreign consumption rose 3.2% and 4.4% in January and February respectively.  This represented the strongest back-to-back rise in foreign demand in years and characterized the strong state of the global economy well.  Subsequently, German businesses reflected the stronger sales in their production numbers.  Manufacturing orders surged 15% in March from the year before, the largest increase in sales in years despite strikes in the state of Rhine-Westphalia, the country's largest.  With revenues rising, firm confidence grew to its highest level in 15 years.   On the other side of the gross domestic product equation, consumers are predicted to have lent little support to expansion.   Retail sales plunged in February and March with a late Easter holiday and strikes leaving many citizens little incentive to spend.  Given the German economy is the largest of the Euro-zone, its strength could advance the whole regions output number.  If this were so, the European Central Bank will be provided more scope to consider interest rate hikes in the months to come.

Previous:  The German economy stalled in the fourth quarter last year as consumer's cut spending and companies scaled down production to reduce inventories and preserve disappearing profit margins.  The $2.6 trillion economy took a large hit after consumers reined in spending on the back of sudden rises in the cost of oil and gasoline.  Additionally, confidence was still tender from the jobless rate slowly improving from a record 12% set months before.  As a result, the retail sector reportedly contracted for the first two months of the year.  The industrial sector was also showing weakness.  Factory production from October to December paled in comparison to the previous two quarters activity.  Even exports, which were expected to be the saving grace of the economy, fell for the first two months of the quarter.  Despite this dour report of growth in its largest member economy, the ECB decided to increase its overnight lending rate to control the region's inflation that continued to hover above the target 2%.

US Advanced Retail Sales (APR) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
Consensus: 0.8%
Previous:  0.6%

Outlook:  Booming confidence among American consumers is expected to translate into higher sales at retailers over the month of April according to the consensus among economists.  Forecasts of a 0.8% rise in sales comes from a favorable rise in wages and a complementary low jobless rate that not only provided more disposable income, but also a greater means to use it; as well as yet another month of unseasonably warm weather that produced its own lure for shoppers.  Last month, consumers found their pockets figuratively lined with money coming off of first quarter wage growth of 5.5% and a jobless rate that held steady at a four-year low 4.7%.  If that wasn't enough, the weather was another reason for optimism to run high.  The month of April this year was the warmest on records that go back well over a hundred years. Combined, all these aspects of a sanguine consumer helped to offset concerns issued by gasoline prices that have drifted near their highest levels ever.  As retail sales retains its upward impetus, consumer demand will continue to lend its weight to economic expansion and tempt firms to pass on higher material costs which will further facilitate inflationary pressure.

Previous:   Retail sales in March, though notching a 0.6% rise, failed to impressive as a pushed back Easter holiday postponed the official commencement of spring shopping for the masses.  After cold weather resulted in an 0.8% drop in sales in February, the most sluggish pace in 6 months, the following month's figure held greater expectations from the market.  Most of the factors were lined up nicely for a healthy sales rebound.  The unemployment fell to a four-year low 4.7% for the month while consumer sentiment rallied following February's sharp contraction in gasoline and heating oil prices.  One benefactor of the drop in volatile gas prices were car sales which rose 1.6% in March covering much of the 2.8% drop the month before.  Excluding the sale of cars and auto parts in March, retail rose 0.4% to fully recover the 0.3% drop in the same measure the month before.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.