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Extreme Swings in Stock Market Follow Fed Hike
By Harry Boxer | Published  05/10/2006 | Stocks | Unrated
Extreme Swings in Stock Market Follow Fed Hike

The Fed raised interest rates today, and the indices had extreme volatility with five sharp swings in the afternoon. But net on the day the Dow and S&P 500 were not that far from ground zero.

The Nasdaq 100, however, fell more than 16 points, pressured by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX), which was down nearly 13 points today.  The Dow closed up 2.88 and the S&P 500 down 2.30.

The day started out with some very narrow back-and-forth action on the Nasdaq 100, with some firming on the S&P 500 and Dow.  They sold off mid-morning and then meandered sideways again until about an hour before the Fed announcement, at which point the indices sold off into the announcement.  Then several violent swings sent the indices first sharply higher, then lower and back-and-forth.  They rallied back very sharply with an hour to go, but sold off in the last hour, before a late snapback brought them up again.

The technicals were decidedly negative with advance-declines 18 to 14 negative on New York and 3 to 2 negative on Nasdaq.  Up/down volume was about 9 to 7 negative on New York with about 1.6 billion traded.  Nasdaq traded nearly 2 billion with a more than 2 to 1 negative plurality on up/down volume.

TheTechTrader.com board was very active and had some huge swings.  Energy Conversion Devices (ENER), an old favorite and current portfolio holding, was up 5.60 on more than 3 million shares, approaching its January all-time high.

Another portfolio stock, LMI Aerospace (LMIA), was up 2.64 on more than 1 million shares after earnings were released mid-day, and the stock closed at a new all-time high.  Pacific Ethanol (PEIX) advanced 1.42 on more than 4 million.  Rediff.com India (REDF) was  up 1.44, Travelzoo (TZOO)  1.08, DXP Enterprises (DXPE) 1.06, and China Automotive (CAAS) 1.96 to 11.19 on more than 1.1 million shares.

But by far the star of the day today was Baidu.com (BIDU), which advanced 22 1/2 on 15 million shares, with the options we had in our portfolio jumping from 4.70 to over 20, a huge day there.

On the downside, AVI Biopharma (AVII) on negative drug news got hammered for 2.36, a huge percentage loss on 14.4 million.  BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX) also gave back 1.07.  Broadcom (BRCM) lost 1.31, as semiconductor stocks were hit hard.

Stepping back and reviewing the overall patterns, the end-of-day, post-FOMC volatility left the market in an indecisive position, and we'll have to see how it goes over the next day or two to determine the short-term trend.

Harry Boxer is a technical consultant to many Wall Street hedge funds and large institutional traders, and author of TheTechTrader.com, a real-time diary of his day, swing and intermediate-term trades. For more of Harry Boxer, sign up for a free 15-day trial to his Real-Time Technical Trading Diary, or sign up for a free 30-day trial to his Top Charts of the Week service.