EUR/AUD ââ,¬â€œ Jumping off of the 50 percent fib from the Decââ,¬â"¢05 ââ,¬â€œ April ââ,¬â"¢06 bull wave, the EURAUD has rebounded on increasing momentum from the Euro major leg.  Now with a clear break of the 1.6500 figure and subsequent penetration of the upside resistance at 1.6538 (38.2 percent fib from the aforementioned move), clear sailing to a test of the 1.6754 figure looks imminent.  However, the price action looks confined at the moment, restricted by both near term averages (25 day and 50 day) on the daily perspective.  Looking at the current dealer configuration, 1.6515 looks to be the next line of defense should the current 100 moving average fail to hold.  The dip below  would coincide with a nascent head and shoulders formation, leading to probable up side and a retest of 1.6650 (38.2 percent fib from the March 27-May 4).  Comparatively, any downside would be capped by the May 4 spike low, contributing to a nascent double bottom rebound.

EUR/CAD ââ,¬â€œ Considerable bidding in the past three sessions has prompted the cross currency to breakthrough the recently tight consolidation that has been occurring for most of April, restricted in the fashion of textbook symmetrical triangle.  Bouncing from the 1.4017 figure, which coincided with the 25 day moving average, bulls pushed through the 1.4100 handle with ease before stalling ahead of the October 26th spike high of 1.4272.  This leaves open a possible test of the 1.4299 April 6th spike high resistance, just short of the even 1.4300 figure forming suggestions of a nascent double top off of the March-April bull move on a the dailies.  Further upside thereafter looks limited as the 23.6 percent fib from the massive Feb ââ,¬â"¢04- Mar ââ,¬â"¢06 bear wave provides longer term resistance at 1.4340, capping intermediate gains.  To the downside, the 1.4000 floor looks to provide bears with a barrier, coinciding with the lower trend of the former formation.

EUR/NZD ââ,¬â€œ In similar fashion the EURNZD cross bounced off of the preliminary 23.6 percent fib at 1.9621 to rise for the week.  Now currently trading at 2.0447, the 2.0666 spike high represents current resistance on further euro bidding.  Coincidentally, the bounce above the 23.6 percent fib confirms the break above the upper trend line on our textbook flag formation and takes out the high on May 4th or 1.9818.  Should the current resistance ceiling fail, downside momentum is likely to retest the support floor at the aforementioned fib.  This will likely precede a break below and a subsequent test of a confluence of the bottomside trend from the flag and the increasingly formidable 38.2 percent fib level at 1.8974. Given ample time, the 100 day moving average would cap the bearish advance, leaving the probability of a move higher.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.