EUR/JPY – The euro weakened against the Yen for the 3rd consecutive week and currently trades near the 76.4% fibo of 139.72-145.50 at 141.09.  Oscillators are bearish as evidenced by negative MACD sloping down and negative momentum but caution is warranted as CCI has crossed above -100.  While a reading below 0 is bearish, a cross above -100 is an early warning sign that momentum is slowing.  This assessment would correlate with either continued consolidation or a slower decline than the one from 145.50.  Potential wave count places wave 1 at 145.50-141.17.  Extensions of wave 1 (145.50-141.47) by factors of 1.382 and 1.618 project possible ends of wave 3 (144.73-?) at 139.12 and 138.17.  More immediate support is defined by the 38.2% fibo of 130.59-145.50 at 139.80.  Resistance stems from the 23.6% fibo of 145.50-141.02 at 142.07 as well as Friday’s high at 142.41.

EUR/CHF – We remarked last Monday that “Fibonacci extensions of wave 1 (1.5853-1.5632) from the top of wave 2/beginning of wave 3 (1.5821) target 1.5517 (1.5821 – 138.2% * (1.5853-1.5632)) and 1.5464 (1.5821 – 161.8% * (1.5853-1.5632)).”  With the pair reaching the projected 1.5460 level after Friday’s 113 pip decline, it is possible that we have entered into a corrective wave 4.  Resistance rests at the confluence of the 23.6% fibo of 1.5852-1.5462 / 5/11 low at 1.5553/54.  Current price is supported by a long term trendline dating to November 2004 lows.  Improving the long term bearish picture is the fact that the pair has crossed below the 200 day SMA.

EUR/GBP – EUR/GBP has traded to its 138.2% extension of wave 1 (.7020-.6888) to .6798.  This combined with yesterday’s hammer on the daily suggests that the pair may digest some of the recent losses.  Resistance stems from the 23.6% and 38.2% fibos of .7020-.6798 at .6850 and .6882.  In the event of continued weakness, the 161.8% extension (.6980-161.8% * (.7020-.6888)) comes in at .6767 as additional support.  Current price is supported by a trendline dating to June 2005 but a daily close below favors shorts.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.