- Japanese Consumer Confidence
- UK Consumer Price Index
- German ZEW Survey
- US Producer Price Index
- US Industrial Production
Japanese Consumer Confidence (April) (5:00 GMT, 1:00 EST)
Consensus: 49.8 (Household), 49.9 (Overall)
Previous: 47.9 (Household), 48.2 (Overall)
Outlook: Japanese consumer confidence is predicted to rebound in the month of April as the Nikkei hit a six year high on April 7th. Industrial production has remained healthy while leading indicators jumped sharply in February. However, other confidence indicators are less encouraging, suggesting that the confidence report could come in weaker. Small business confidence for the month of April dipped from 51.5 to 50.8 while the Eco Watchers Survey dropped from 57.3 to 54.6. Both were more disappointing than the market had anticipated which suggests that the overall consumer confidence report could as well.
Previous: After hitting 15 Year highs in March, Japanese consumer confidence dropped from 49.9 to 48.2. Concern about the potential impact of rising energy prices is finally cutting into the overall optimistic environment in Japan. Heading in February, Japanese citizens were benefiting from rising compensation, improving labor market and strong stock market performance. More specifically, Japan's jobless rate dropped to a seven year low in February while the Nikkei rallied 7 percent in March.
UK Consumer Price Index (April) (8:30 GMT, 4:30 EST)
Consensus: 0.6% MoM, 2.0% YoY
Previous: 0.2% MoM, 1.8% YoY
Core prices
Consensus: 1.3% YoY
Previous: 1.3% YoY
Outlook: Surging energy prices and improved retail demand look to drive up monthly UK Consumer Price Index and bring yearly numbers back to the upper reaches of BoE target levels. Consensus estimates pin the number at 0.6%, up from 0.2%, bringing yearly rates to 2.0%, up from 1.8% for March. The estimates seem to have silenced any talk of a lowering of interest rates from 4.50% by the Bank of England as the numbers would suggest that inflation remains a concern for the Central Bank. Should the numbers surprise to the upside the BoE may even have to consider raising rates once again.
Previous: Inflation numbers for March were lower than expected despite the continued rise in energy prices. The Consumer Price Index rise of 0.2 percent was below the market's forecast of 0.4 percent, which hurt the pound and dropped annual CPI growth to 1.8 percent, down from the previous 2.0 percent. There was speculation that the lowered numbers might necessitate a lowering of interest rates later in the year. As mortgage lending figures for March were the highest since July 2005, the housing market offset many of these concerns.
German ZEW Survey (May) (9:00 GMT, 5:00 EST)
Consensus: 60.0
Previous: 62.7
Outlook: German investor confidence for May is expected to fall for a fourth consecutive month as rising costs continue to dampen economic sentiment. Oil remains above $70 a barrel, constraining discretionary spending. Inflation is a concern across the board as German Wholesale Price Index rose 1.0% earlier in the month, higher than expectations of 0.5%, while Consumer Price Index for April was in line with expectations at 0.4%. Meanwhile, German GDP growth for the quarter was 0.4%, breaking last period's stagnation but slightly below expectations of 0.6%. The mixed data will likely further contribute to uncertainty among European investors leading to the fourth consecutive decline from January ZEW highs.
Previous: The German ZEW survey of investor confidence for April dropped unexpectedly for the third straight month from 63.4 to 62.7. A variety of factors contributed to the continued decline. March European retail sales dropped by the largest amount in almost two years, while unemployment remained above 11%, causing household spending to stagnate. In France protestors violently demonstrated against new labor laws that would have made it easier to fire younger employees in Germany's neighbor. The disruption dropped French consumer confidence, which may have affected last month's German survey.
US Producer Price Index (April) (12:30 GMT, 8:30 EST)
Consensus: 0.7% MoM, 4.2% YoY
Previous: 0.5% MoM, 3.5% YoY
Core prices
Consensus: 0.2% MoM, 1.6% YoY
Previous: 0.1% MoM, 1.7% YoY
Outlook: The sharp surge in energy prices in the month of April is expected to have a big impact on headline producer prices. Core prices however are still expected to remain subdued. The risk is for a stronger report given the sharp increases in import prices according to last week's trade balance report. Any upside surprises will definitely boost inflation expectations as well as expectations for a continued tightening by the Federal Reserve.
Previous: Headline producer prices increased 0.5 percent in March, after falling 1.4 percent the previous month. Higher energy costs drove prices higher, but excluding the volatile food and energy components, producer prices only increased 0.1 percent in March, which was the slowest pace of growth since November. The subdued core report suggests that the 375bp of tightening delivered by the Federal Reserve is keeping inflation pressures well contained. Part of the slower rise can be attributed to cheaper prices for computers, metal cutting machine tools and floor coverings.
US Industrial Production (APR) (14:15 GMT, 09:15 EST)
Consensus: 0.5%
Previous: 0.6%
Outlook: Industrial production for the U.S. economy is expected to report a 0.5% growth in April, a slowdown from March that printed 0.6%. According to a Bloomberg survey of economists, output at factories, mines and utilities remained robust in April and the share of industrial capacity in use most likely rose to 81.5 percent, the highest level since September 2000. On May 10, the Federal Reserve officials said that "increases in resource utilization, in combination with the elevated prices of energy and other commodities, have the potential to add to inflation pressure.'' On the other hand, the FOMC statement added that even though economic growth has been quite strong so far this year growth and inflation will soften in coming months. We are starting to see some early signs of softening in the factory sector. Although the Institute for Supply Management rose to 60.4 in April from 57.5 the previous month, the inventory index rose to 51.3, the highest level in 13 months.
Previous: Industrial production rose 0.6% in March, following a 0.5 percent gain in February. An increase in overseas orders from Europe and Japan, which are enjoying a stronger growth, accounted most for the expansion in manufacturing sector. The industrial capacity rose to 81.3 percent, the highest since September 2000. Production of automobiles, furniture and electronics increased 0.3 percent after falling 0.1 percent in the previous month. Manufacturing production, excluding autos rose 0.5 percent after a 0.1 percent decline. Business equipment production improved 0.8 percent in March after rising 0.2 percent the previous month. The rebound in manufacturing production was expected after a weak February.
Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.