AUDCAD ââ,¬â€œ AUD/CAD stills trades in an upward sloping corrective channel from the.8208 low made on 3/29.  Within the channel, it appears that we have a completed A-B-C corrective pattern in a larger wave 4 at .8590, which paves the way for another bout of weakness going forward possible towards .8062 (which is .8590 ââ,¬â€œ wave 1 length (.9854-.9327 = .0527)).  The pair has currently broken the upward sloping trendline, which bolsters the bearish outlook.  Oscillators are weakening as well ââ,¬â€œ with CCI now below 0 and RSI < 50.  Any strength would challenge todayââ,¬â"¢s high at .8536.

AUD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ The Aussie has weakened as well against the JPY and currently trades right at a long term supporting trendline from 6/18/2004.  Daily oscillators also favor shorts as MACD is sloping down and is negative, RSI is < 50, and CCI < -100, indicating that momentum down is very strong.  Resistance is below at the 78.6% fibo of 82.06-87.82 at 83.30.  Additional resistance is at the 3/27 low of 82.06.  A small corrective bounce would target yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s high at 84.15.

AUD/NZD ââ,¬â€œ The impressive rally from AUD/NZD may have come to an end.  Negative divergence with oscillators on the daily (most notably MACD and RSI) combined with some Fibonacci ratio analysis suggests that this rally may have run its course.  The rally started at 1.0426 and reached a high of 1.2423 on 5/10.  Measuring the rally from the beginning of the rally to the bottom of wave 4/beginning of wave 5 at 1.1664 yields 1.1664-1.0426 = .1238 (1,238 pips).  Now, measuring to the top of the rally at 1.2423 yields 1.2423-1.1664 = .0759.  Computing the ratio yields .0759/.1238 = .613086 - or a mere .0049 from .618.  A fifth wave often equals a Fibonacci multiple of wave 1 to 3 (or bottom of 4 as is the case here).  Support is at the 38.2% of 1.1664-1.2423 at 1.2132 as well as the 4/11 high at 1.2015.  Range trading within some corrective waves is likely after the extreme Aussie rally.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.