GBP/JPY â�,�“ With things rather choppy lately on the daily and even weekly charts, we have decided this week to take a longer term look this week at GBP/JPY.  Having mentioned last week that a breakout could come within the next few weeks â�,�“ here is evidence that the break could be up.  A monthly chart shows a full 5 wave pattern from 569.368-127.04.  The overall correction then began in April 1995 with wave a rallying to 240.96 in August 1998.  Wave B then declines to 152.96 in August 2000.  Since then, we have traded in a long triangle.  A diagonal triangle does indeed have 5 waves (A, B, C, D, E) and the chart fits nicely into this pattern so far â�,�“ placing the end of wave 5 near the confluence of the upward sloping resistance line from the triangle / 78.6% fibo of 241.10-148.41 at 221.14 before a subsequent downtrend.  This of course is just one possibility of many and the market ultimately goes where it goes.  That said, the daily chart is more bullish with positive daily oscillators as well as a big outside day yesterday after a small decline.  Outside days are often turning points. 

GBP/CHF â�,�“ GBP/CHF continues to trade within a well-defined range mostly bound by 2.2450 and 2.2915.  The pair is trading right at the upper end of the range â�,�“ having pierced 2.2900 yesterday and today at 2.2915 and 2.2906.  As such, opportunities exist in both directions with the proximity of the resistance line.  A break above would expose the 2.28 high at 2.3051.  A bounce off of resistance sends the pair back into the range with fibos of the 2.2450-2.2915 rally as supports (23.6: 2.2805, 38.2: 2.2737, 50: 2.2681, 61.8: 2.2626, 78.6: 2.2548).  Oscillators are bullish after the recent rally but in a range â�,�“ but CCI is overextended at 161 and a cross below 100 would bolster a bearish outlook.

GBP/AUD â�,�“ GBP/AUD took off last week.  The situation played out as described last week: â�,��"A bullish outlook is bolstered by the inverse head and shoulders (evident on hourly and dealer charts) as well as the fact that rising triangles (daily) are often bullish.â�,�  However, the pair hit a wall today at 2.4844 â�,�“ the high from 3/29.  This threatening double top is quite bearish as is the negative divergence that accompanies it on the daily chart with nearly all oscillators.  As such, a reversal at the upper Bollinger band (daily) is a possibility, with support at the 5/16 low of 2.4537.  A break above exposes the 161.8% fibo extension of 2.3666-2.4280 from 2.3972.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.