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The Odds Czar: Index Futures Biases for April 28
By Art Collins | Published  04/27/2005 | Futures , Stocks | Unrated
The Odds Czar: Index Futures Biases for April 28

Besides the usual disclaimers of (1) past performance is not indicative of future results; and (2) the risk of loss in futures is substantial, I have a few other disclaimers.

1. It is quite possible that at this early stage, there are a few remaining bugs in the system.  This is still a test period.  If something is found to be lacking, or we can improve on it, we'll do so.  We have no problem adjusting as new circumstances become apparent.

2. There are actually two changes relative to past postings. Both are within the Day-of-the-Week indicator:  Contrary to what was previously stated, there is a combination of close-to-close and open-to-close indicators.  I'll just re-list the day of the week rules, and you should accept these as the New Overriding Truth (kind of the way the New Testament superseded the Old oneâ€"well, for some of us anyway).

1. Be long on Monday if Friday's close-to-close was UP and vice versa.
2. Be long on Tuesday if Monday's close-to-close was DOWN and vice versa.
The rest track previous days' open-to-closes. 
3. On Wednesay, be long or short OPPOSITE the greatest open to close of the last 2 days.
4. On Thursday, be long or short OPPOSITE the greatest open to close of the last 3 days.
5. On Friday, be long or short OPPOSITE the greatest open to close of the last 4 days.

The Thursday rule now makes it comparable to the rest of the week, especially Wednesday and Friday.  We actually got better historic results keying off the weekly highs and lows, but it's probably more prudent to not specialize it so much.  We can assume the new way is more robust even if slightly less profitable historically.

We will post daily buy/sells in three index futures: the mini S&Ps, mini-Nasdaq and mini-Russells.  (We tested in the big ones for logistical reasonsâ€"the software's mini data field is more limited.)  We'll go with the minis because that's where today's volume is.  The fills are incredible, especially online.  On stops, you're almost invariably filled at your price, even in the Russell.  We'll leave out the Dow, again for logistical reasons.  Given its particular cost-per-trade size and relative lack of liquidity, it's better to stay with the other three.
    
Some Preliminary Notes about the Concept
We are combining the Dynamic Daily One indicator with the Monthly Perpetual indicator.  These constitute continuous long/short trades.  There will be overnights.  It will be possible before the open to determine whether we continue in the same direction or flip it around.

The Monthly Perpetual indicator is sort of like an object in motion.  If the other indicator doesn't contradict it, we stay in that direction.  We know what the monthly is mandating at all timesâ€"it's just a matter of following the same dates in the same way.  Get long on the 22nd of each month (or as close thereafter as possible) and reverse to the short side on the 7th.  Hold the short and flip long on the next 22nd, infinitum.

If the Dynamic Daily one contradicts the Monthly Perpetual, we'll reverse in the latter's direction on the next open.  We hold that overnight, and the next day will give us a new chance to stay in the counter-trend or reverse back to the main trend.  We're not going to have room to explain everything today, but we'll get to it all eventually.  For now, the signals will all be disclosed.

The Biases
LONG mini-Nasdaq and mini-Russell, SHORT mini-S&Ps.
The Russell points higher on both ends.  The Nasdaq's daily indicators are in conflict, so the overall monthly signal stands.  The S&Ps are negative on the short term, so we go in that direction even though we're in the monthly buy timeframe.

Tomorrow:  More about the individual components, plus a spreadsheet we'll use from then on.  It includes the direction of each elemental bias as well as the combined signals.

DISCLAIMER: It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented on in this column will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Examples presented on this column are for educational purposes only. These set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell. The author, Tiger Shark Publishing LLC, and all affiliates assume no responsibility for your trading results. There is a high degree of risk in trading.

Art Collins is the author of Market Beaters, a collection of interviews with renowned mechanical traders. He is currently working on a second volume. E-mail Art at artcollins@ameritech.net.