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Stock Market Range Continues
By Toni Hansen | Published  04/28/2005 | Futures , Stocks | Unrated
Stock Market Range Continues

 

Good day! As the daily range in the market progresses, we saw some pretty nice intraday setups on Wednesday. The day began with a gap lower as the NASDAQ opened into prior 60 minute lows. From there it crawled lower for the first 45 minutes of the day. Since the market was so extended by that time and coming into the lower levels of the daily range, new shorts were a lot higher risk. This helped lead to rounded lows on the 5 minute charts and a 2B* reversal pattern in the NASDAQ.

 

As the rounded lows turned over, the market popped rather quickly into the highs of the day and the 5 minute 20 sma. At that point it fell into a range along the resistance level, creating a nice 5 minute buy pattern going into mid-day. It allowed the gap to close and 5 minute 20 sma support held to put in a third wave of buying into noon. From there we got a bit longer of a correction and one more rally to new highs and strong resistance from the prior trading day.

When you have this series of three waves of buying, followed by a slightly longer base and then a fourth move higher, it tends to exhaust a stock or index. This meant that we had likely seen the highs of the day, so I took that pivot high as a short. It was the choppiest trade pattern of the day, but we did see the selling continue into the last half hour or the day.

I am continuing to see mostly short patterns on the daily charts at this time. Stocks basing at lows on the dailies are dominating the market and this can help it drop lower over the next week. I do not think that the market as a whole is ready just yet, however, since typically a bear flag will base about as long as the prior base was before it continues. This means a few more days. The 20 day sma is going to be resistance so we want to see the base hold into that. If we get slightly lower lows before that hits again, then the risk is going to be higher than the lows hold and we just get a 2B* reversal pattern on the daily. You also want to watch to make sure the selling within the base is stronger than the upside moves. This will allow for more momentum on a breakdown.

WLT and  YELL are going well since breaking lower out of their daily bases. AET and UVN pulled higher on Wednesday without clearing the daily support but I'll keep an eye on them to see if they hold daily resistance levels and can get the pace turning back over to favor shorts again. On the upside, PENN is pulling into strong daily support here. TIVO, however, pulled back too much and hit adjusted stops. AAP is doing well on the weekly charts while ASKJ has yet to trigger.

* A 2B is a form of double bottom where the second low is slightly under the first, flushing out those who used the initial lows as a stop and scaring out the weak hands only to trap them on a pivot. These are common at strong support levels after a trend move has put in several waves of selling.

Economic Reports and Events
Apr 28: Chain Deflator-Adv. For Q1 (8:30 am), GDP-Adv. For Q1 (8:30 am), Initial Claims 04/23 (8:30 am), Help-Wanted Index for Mar (10:00 am)
Apr 29: Employment Cost Index for Q1 (8:30 am), Personal Income for Mar (8:30 am), Personal Spending for Mar (8:30 am), Mich. Sentiment-Rev. for Apr (9:45 am), Chicago PMI for Apr (10:00 am)
May 02: Construction Spending for Mar (10:00 am), ISM Index for Apr (10:00 am)
May 03: Factory Orders for Mar (10:00 am), Auto Sales for Apr (12:00 am), Truck Sales for Apr (12:00 am), FOMC policy announcement (2:15 pm)

Earnings Announcements of Interest
Only stocks with an average daily volume of 500K+ are listed. List may not be complete so be sure to always check your stocks' earnings dates before holding a position overnight. (A) = Earnings after the close, (B) = Earnings before the open, (?) = Earnings time not specified at the time of this writing
Apr 28: LEND (B), ADPT (?), AVO (B), AET (B), ALA (?), AYE (A), AGI (?), AEE (B), AEP (B), APCC (A), ANDW (B), APA (B), AMCC (B), AZN (?), AN (B), AVT (?), BLL (B), ABX (B), BZH (B), BDK (B), BMY (B), BG (B), BNI (B), BOBJ (?), CCMP (B), CELG (B), CTL (B), CRDN (B), CIN (B), CCE (B), CMCSA (B), CCI (A), CSX (B), DCX (?), DVA (B), EMN (A), ELN (B), ENCY (A), ESLR (B), XOM (?), FLEX (?), BEN (A), FMT (B), GTW (A), GNW (A), GP (B), GSK (07:00 am ET), GFI (?), GR (B), GW (B), HC (?), HIG (A), HPC (B), IDNX (?), IM (A), IRF (A), IVGN (A), IRM (B), K (B), KLAC (A), KLIC (B), LEXR (A), LIZ (B), LOOK (A), LYO (B), MRO (?), MVL (B), WFR (A), MCRL (A), MSCC (A), MSFT (A), MLNM (B), MGAM (B), NTGR (A), NWL (B), NFX (B), NEWP (?)NXTL (B), NXTP (?), ORI (?), OLN (A), PHS (A), PAAS (A), PRX (B), PTEN (B), PLAY (A), POZN (B), PCO (B), PDE (A), PGN (B), PLD (B), QLTI (B), RTN (B), RSG (A), RD (02:30 am ET), SFNT (A), SAPE (A), SPG (A), SIRI (B), HOT (B), SU (B), TRA (B), DOW (B), EL (B), TTN (B), UDI (B), UCL (?), VSEA (A), VNO (B), WMI (B), WEN (?), UBET (A), ZRAN (A)
Apr 29: AMCS (?), AU (B), ADM (B), CCJ (?), CAH (B), CNP (?), CVX (B), CCU (B), GERN (B), KSE (B), NI (B), SWN (A), SPF (B), SPN (B)
May 02: AVP (?), CECO (A), CTIC (?), CHK (A), CTV (A), ECLP (B), GGP (A), GLG (?), HUM (05:00 am ET), OSIP (A), PKD (B), POG (A), PRTL (?), RT (A), SYY (B), TNE (B), DTV (B), PFG (A), TSN (B), UPCS (A), WCI (B)
May 03: ACAS (A), AFR (B), AOC (A), ARM (B), BRKS (A), CMX (?), CEPH (A), CHTR (B), CBB (B), CZN (B), CVH (B), EMR (B), GGB (B), HNT (B), IDTI (?), LVS (?), LOUD (?), MACR (A), MMC (B), MAS (?), MXIM (A), MBI (?), MET (A), PKZ (?), PXD (B), KWK (A), RNR (A), SWY (?), SKE (?), STA (B), SBL (A), TLM (?), TKLC (A), THC (B), TERN (A), RIG (B), TRN (A), TYC (B), UNTD (A), UNM (A), VRTS (?), VSH (B)

Toni Hansen is President and Co-founder of the Bastiat Group, Inc., and runs the popular Trading From Main Street. She can be reached at Toni@tradingfrommainstreet.com.