EUR/USD â�,�“ Once again, EUR/USD dipped below 1.2700 ever so briefly before an impressive rally to 1.2886.  The rally to that level appears far more convincing than the previous rally to 1.2872 and as such, the market may be leaning towards a bullish stance once again â�,�“ signaling that the corrective 4th wave on the daily charts from 1.2970 is nearing an end or may already be in place at 1.2691.  Support is at the 61.8% and 78.6% fibos of 1.2691-1.2886 at 1.2766 and 1.2733.  A break below 1.2691 would argue for a retracement towards the 5/4 low / 38.2% fibo of 1.1825-1.2970 at 1.2532/70. 

USD/JPY â�,�“ USD/JPY made a very bearish reverse hammer yesterday at the 38.2% fibo of 118.87-108.98 at 112.75 and has since tested the 111.00 figure (actually stopping at the 50% fibo of 108.97-112.93 at 110.95).  The bearish candle on the daily combined with the fibo level at 112.75 is compelling evidence that the path of least resistance is down for the time being.  Immediate resistance is at the 50% fibo of 112.98-110.96 at 111.94.  Another leg down could test the 5/18 low at 110.29 with the next support level at the 5/12 low of 109.29.  Hourly oscillators are decreasing and MACD < 0.

GBP/USD â�,�“ Yesterdayâ�,��"�s down day continued a trend of alternating up and down â�,�“ not out of the ordinary of course for a corrective move after a vicious trend.  The move down just below 1.8650 yesterday may have completed a 3 wave corrective pattern.  Supporting this is that the rally from 1.8632 to 1.8885 was swift and forceful.  A continuation of the rally targets the 5/19 high at 1.8962 with the 5/17 high at 1.9024 soon thereafter.  Support is at former intraday support turned resistance (now possible support again) at 1.8784.  Also serving as support for the past two days has been the 10 day SMA, which rests at 1.8832.

USD/CHF â�,�“ Similar to EUR/USD, USD/CHF has broken through a previous consolidation channel, giving scope to an eventual resumption of the downtrend.  Resistance stems from former intraday resistance turned support at 1.2149.  A break above there would negate the bearish implications from the 1.2239-1.2015 decline.  A break below the 1.2015 low from yesterday encounters the 5/17 low at 1.2002.  Favoring bears is that RSI is still sub-50 and CCI sub-0. 

USD/CAD â�,�“ Yesterdayâ�,��"�s observation that â�,��"corrections often take this form or count of 3-3-5. This would be suggestive of a reversion to weaknessâ�,�  proved correct as USD/CAD dropped 80 pips open to close.  The ensuing fall was one that a trader did not want to be in the way of.  The pair is supported by the confluence of the 10 and 20 day SMAâ�,��"�s at 1.1115/18 but a break through there exposes the 5/18 low of 1.1096.  This eveningâ�,��"�s 1.1175 high is initial resistance but former intraday support at 1.1193 must hold at resistance if we are to see more action to the downside.  

AUD/USD â�,�“ AUD/USD bounced right off of the 200 day SMA at .7463 and left behind long bearish wick on the daily candle.  The pair is testing the upper boundary of a channel at present and a bounce lower to complete a 5th wave down is certainly a possibility.  The low from yesterday at .7465 is immediate support with the 50% fibo of .7014-.7793 at .7405 as additional support.  In fact, the length of wave 1 is 153 pips (.7725-.7572) and if this is the beginning of wave 5 right now at this trendline, then a bottom is projected at (the beginning of wave 5 â�,�“ the length of wave 1).  Thus, .7563 - .0153 (153 pips) = .7410 â�,�“ very close to the .7405 fibo level. 

NZD/USD â�,�“ Very similar to the Aussie, Kiwi has strengthened and is now back above .6200.  The pair holds within a downward sloping channel and a rejection at the upper trend line could send the pair back to yesterdayâ�,��"�s low at .6142.  A surge through the trendline exposes the 5/17 high at .6297 and the 5/12 high at .6330.  The structure of the chart on the hourly looks nearly identical to AUD/USD and another leg down towards .6100 would be the most technically appeasing.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.