EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ EUR/USD dipped below 1.2800 and tested the 61.8% fibo of 1.2691-1.2886 at 1.2765.  Although the dip to that level was rapid, the pair has rallied back to 1.2850 with vigor, keeping a cautious short term bullish tone.  Support is at the 61.8% and 78.6% fibos of 1.2691-1.2886 at 1.2766 and 1.2733.  Staunch resistance is at 1.2875 as evidenced by the triple top on the hourly.  Daily oscillators are quite bearish though with MACD sloping down and momentum in negative territory for the first time since 4/18 when the pair was at 1.2350.  If todayââ,¬â"¢s low at 1.2763 fails to hold up as support, then a test of the 5/22 low at 1.2694 is a possibility. 

USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ The bearish reverse hammer two days ago at the 38.2% fibo of 118.87-108.98 at 112.75 has kept USD/JPY bulls at bay.  Todayââ,¬â"¢s interim high was rejected at the 78.6% fibo of 112.93-110.95 at 112.50.  This suggests that the rally to 112.61 was a corrective second wave and that a third wave could be underway towards Fibonacci extensions of 110.20 (112.61-(.382*(112.93-110.95)) or 109.73 (112.61-(.618*(112.93-110.95)).  Immediate resistance is at the mentioned 112.61 followed by the 5/22 high at 112.93.  The pair has traded along its 20 day SMA the last 4 days.  This moving average offers a good point of reference from which to trade. 

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ Similar to EUR/USD, GBP/USD weakened to the 61.8% fibo of its recent rally (1.8632-1.8886 at 1.8729) before embarking on a 100+ pip move up.  Immediate resistance is at the convergence of the past two dayââ,¬â"¢s highs at 1.8883/85.  A strong continuation of the rally past there targets the 5/19 high at 1.8962 with the 5/17 high at 1.9024 soon thereafter.  Support is at todayââ,¬â"¢s low / 61.8% fibo of 1.8632-1.8886 at 1.8729.  A break below there targets the confluence of the 20 day SMA / 5/22 low at 1.8632/39.  Threatening bulls on a longer term basis is daily oscillators, which are declining.  CCI is still positive but has been declining for weeks and momentum has moved into negative territory for the first time since 4/14 when GBP/USD was trading at 1.7511.  These developments suggest that we will eventually see a more complete retracement of the huge uptrend, possible to the 5/11 low of 1.8530.

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ USD/CHF has formed a semi deformed head and shoulders continuation pattern on the hourly with two left shoulders and one right shoulder.  H&S patterns tend to display symmetry so another rally to form a second right shoulder at todayââ,¬â"¢s high of 1.2135 or the 5/17 high at 1.2187 is certainly a possibility.  However, the pattern does give scope to an eventual resumption of the downtrend.  A break below the 1.2015 low from 5/22 would expose the 5/17 low at 1.2002.  The pair remains trapped at by its 10 day SMA, which currently trades roughly 20 pips higher at 1.2082.  Oscillators on the daily are mixed with momentum positive for the first time since 4/14 but RSI appears to be turning down once more. 

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ USD/CAD rallied significantly yesterday and formed an inside day just above its 10 and 20 day SMAââ,¬â"¢s.  The correction of the recent downtrend to 1.0969 has been a choppy one.  A continued rise is suggested by a potential reverse head and shoulders continuation pattern (visible on the hourly).  This is in agreement with a short term 5 wave pattern that puts corrective wave 4 ending at 1.1193 and thus wave 5 would be starting at current levels.  A rally tests the triple top at 1.1265 (from the last 3 dayââ,¬â"¢s highs).  The pair is supported by the 20 day SMA at 1.1120 but a break through there exposes the 5/18 low of 1.1096.

AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œ AUD/USD is little changed from yesterday.  The pair still trades near the upper boundary of a channel but it is possible that we have seen a full 3 wave correction ââ,¬â€œ with the pair already retracing a bit over 38.2% of its recent uptrend from .7014-.7791.  The bullish picture improves immensely on a sustained break of the short term resisting trendline.  The confluence of the 5/22 low / 200 day SMA at .7462/65 is immediate support with the 50% fibo of .7014-.7791 at .7405 as additional support.  There is however a negative10, 20 day SMA cross on the daily that is disconcerting to bulls.  This is the first cross since a positive cross occurred on 4/11 at .7335.     

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ NZD/USD actually appears more bullish than the AUD chart.  This is interesting because it was also NZD/USD that led the decline.  After trading along its lower Bollinger band for 6 days, the pair distanced itself a bit yesterday and closed above the 10 day SMA yesterday, by 3 pipsââ,¬Â¦but still above, for the first time since 5/8.  The pair has also surged through the intraday trendline, which is what differentiates it from AUD/USD.  Resistance is at yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s high of .6305 followed by the confluence of the 61.8% fibo of .6443-.6142 / 5/12 high at .6328/30.  Yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s low just above the psychological .6200 at .6203 acts as initial support.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.