AUD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ AUD/CAD retraced nearly 61.8% of its .8208-.8605 rally to .8372 and has since rallied to .8450.  A long term look at the daily chart shows a possible huge 3 wave correction of .7503-1.0544 (March 2001 to February 2004) ending at the end of March at .8208.  This could be a long term bottom with the start of a new uptrend underway.  Bolstering a long (very long) term bullish outlook is an inside candle at the lower Bollinger band on the monthly chart.  This is indicative of a long term bottom and market shift.  Additionally, this initial rise from .8208 to .8606 could be the first wave in a much larger first wave.  Still, daily oscillators are mixed as momentum is sub-0 but RSI looks to be turning up.             

AUD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ AUD/JPY has traded in a very choppy range the past week between 85.25 and 83.54.  The daily chart offers little clarity other than the fact that the pair is resisted by its 10 day SMA.  An hourly chart shows a head and shoulders continuation pattern in a medium term downtrend and thus lends a bearish tone.  Also, as the pair has declined, ATR (average true range) has steadily picked up.  Typically, ATR will increase in trending markets.  This tells us that we could be in the beginning of a downward trending market.   

AUD/NZD ââ,¬â€œ AUD/NZD has done a complete about face and plummeted over 400 pips since its 1.2423 high on 5/10.  The market has run into support from the 1.2015 high today but a break below sets bearââ,¬â"¢s sights 300 pips below at the 38.2% fibo of 1.0428-1.2422 at 1.1661.  The rise to 1.2422 was so rapid and extreme, that expectations are for a violent and extreme correction; such is the nature of markets.  Oscillators on the daily are decidedly bearish as momentum is negative, MACD slopes down, and CCI has just crosses below 0.  The pair has also broken below the 10 and 20 day moving averages for the first time since mid-February, further supporting the opinion that continued AUD/NZD strength is a low probability proposition.    

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.