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Daily Double Bottom Potential in Larger Range
By Toni Hansen | Published  04/29/2005 | Futures , Stocks | Unrated
Daily Double Bottom Potential in Larger Range

 

Good day! The market had quite a whippy day on Thursday, making for a more difficult trading session than the previous day. It started with another gap lower into the open, followed by selling for the first 30 minutes of the day as the market broke down out of a premarket base at lows. This opening action very comparable to Wednesday, but the selling on the 60 minute charts going into the gap was not as extreme as the prior day and the reaction to the support was not as great.

 

The pivot off early morning lows was again very strong, taking the market back to 15 minute 20 sma resistance and filling the gap zone. This time, however, the resistance that hit on this first wave of buying held extremely well and the market fell more quickly than usual. The SP500 and Dow Jones Ind. Ave. dropped about 50% of the morning rally while the NASDAQ fell a bit further. The reaction to the support was very minimal, basing along the lows to create a short pattern going into mid-day which followed through with a small bear flag. This took the NASDAQ to new intraday lows while the SP500 and Dow fell into morning lows and price support.

With the larger 15 minute charts expressing a rather strong bearish bias, I wasn't looking for much upside off the support. The only thing that was a concern for shorting was that each wave of selling on the 15 minute charts in the SP500 and Dow was slower and more gradual than the last, which is a rather bullish development. This created a brief burst of strength into 14:00 ET that was basically just a flush before the market turned back lower into the close.

Heading into Friday, the market is still pretty bearish intraday. The indices have support, however, at the lows from about a week ago. Since the market bounced instead of based at those levels, the prior lows are now support. A break under them will be higher risk as a short because the market hasn't really rested a lot on the daily charts as compared to the correction that took place into early April. A triangle on the daily would be more ideal, although it might not occur. At this point I see no patterns intraday that are suggestive of a bounce so you should still be more cautious on longs.

For swing, WLT has gone very well, hitting $33.70 from its break out of the range around $39. YELL is now basing at 60 minute lows. at and  YELL are going well since breaking lower out of their daily bases. On the upside though, PENN needs to hold Thursday lows while the longer term AAP is doing well and ASKJ has yet to trigger.

Economic Reports and Events
Apr 29: Employment Cost Index for Q1 (8:30 am), Personal Income for Mar (8:30 am), Personal Spending for Mar (8:30 am), Mich. Sentiment-Rev. for Apr (9:45 am), Chicago PMI for Apr (10:00 am)
May 02: Construction Spending for Mar (10:00 am), ISM Index for Apr (10:00 am)
May 03: Factory Orders for Mar (10:00 am), Auto Sales for Apr (12:00 am), Truck Sales for Apr (12:00 am), FOMC policy announcement (2:15 pm)

Earnings Announcements of Interest
Only stocks with an average daily volume of 500K+ are listed. List may not be complete so be sure to always check your stocks' earnings dates before holding a position overnight. (A) = Earnings after the close, (B) = Earnings before the open, (?) = Earnings time not specified at the time of this writing
Apr 29: AMCS (?), AU (B), ADM (B), CCJ (?), CAH (B), CNP (?), CVX (B), CCU (B), GERN (B), KSE (B), NI (B), SWN (A), SPF (B), SPN (B)
May 02: AVP (?), CECO (A), CTIC (?), CHK (A), CTV (A), ECLP (B), GGP (A), GLG (?), HUM (05:00 am ET), OSIP (A), PKD (B), POG (A), PRTL (?), RT (A), SYY (B), TNE (B), DTV (B), PFG (A), TSN (B), UPCS (A), WCI (B)
May 03: ACAS (A), AFR (B), AOC (A), ARM (B), BRKS (A), CMX (?), CEPH (A), CHTR (B), CBB (B), CZN (B), CVH (B), EMR (B), GGB (B), HNT (B), IDTI (?), LVS (?), LOUD (?), MACR (A), MMC (B), MAS (?), MXIM (A), MBI (?), MET (A), PKZ (?), PXD (B), KWK (A), RNR (A), SWY (?), SKE (?), STA (B), SBL (A), TLM (?), TKLC (A), THC (B), TERN (A), RIG (B), TRN (A), TYC (B), UNTD (A), UNM (A), VRTS (?), VSH (B)

Toni Hansen is President and Co-founder of the Bastiat Group, Inc., and runs the popular Trading From Main Street. She can be reached at Toni@tradingfrommainstreet.com.