EUR/USD â�,�“ EUR/USD continues to range, primarily between 1.2880 and 1.2750.  The consolidation that has taken place following the 1.2970 high on 5/15 has taken the form of a symmetrical triangle.  Volatility has contracted in recent days as the pair has traded mostly along the confluence of the upward sloping support line from the triangle / 20 day SMA at 1.2765.  Oscillators on the daily are sloping down and thus favor shorts.  Resistance at the upper end of the triangle is strengthened by the 78.6% fibo of 1.2890-1.2728 at 1.2828.  A break beyond there would target the 5/24 high of 1.2890.  A break below the lower end of the triangle near 1.2775 exposes the 5/19 low at 1.2691.  The range market that has persisted since 5/14 may give way to a more impulsive move as we near the end of this triangle.

USD/JPY â�,�“ USD/JPY has broken through the supporting trendline on the hourly chart that was containing the lower end of the range.  Since yesterdayâ�,��"�s double top at 112.94, the USD has fallen 100 pips against the JPY.  Further, a bearish engulfing pattern is evident from yesterdayâ�,��"�s daily candle and it formed right at the double top of 112.94 (just above the 38.2% fibo of 118.83-108.96).  With the pair just under 112.00, support comes in at the 5/23 low of 110.96.  Additional weakness exposes fibonacci extensions of 110.20 (112.61-(.382*(112.93-110.95)) or 109.73 (112.61-(.618*(112.93-110.95)).  Immediate resistance is at the mentioned 112.94 followed by the 50% fibo of 118.86-108.96 at 113.93.

GBP/USD â�,�“ GBP/USD also trades in a triangle as it continues to digest the gains to 1.9024.  The lower end of the triangle has supported price a great deal the last two days at the last 3 dayâ�,��"�s lows (1.8651, 1.8665, 1.8675).  Bears continue to test this level and if it gives way, then the 20 day SMA at 1.8692 is immediate support followed by the 5/22 low at 1.8632.  The inability of the pair to rally towards the upper end of the triangle in recent days combined with the downward sloping oscillators on the daily gives scope to a more severe correction, possibly to the 38.2% of 1.7227-1.9024 at 1.8339.

USD/CHF â�,�“ The hourly chart of USD/CHF has hardly changed.  Still intact is the semi deformed head and shoulders continuation pattern on the hourly with two left shoulders and one right shoulder.  The pair has ranged at the top of its right shoulder for nearly two days now primarily between 1.2202 and 1.2144.  The continuation pattern is bearish and support comes in at the upward sloping trendline (see hourly chart below) at the psychological 1.2100.  A break below exposes the daily lows at 1.2024 (5/24) and 1.2015 (5.22).  The pair remains trapped below its 20 day SMA, which currently trades at 1.2180.  Looking at the chart construction on the hourly, it appears that we are in a corrective wave of the larger correction up.  In other words, a fuller retracement of the previous downward trend remains an option, with the 5/11 high at 1.2304 as well as the 38.2% of 1.3235-1.1921 at 1.2423 coming into play AS potential ends of the overall A-B-C correction before another leg down in the overall downtrend.

USD/CAD â�,�“ USD/CAD has plummeted after testing the triple top at 1.1265 (from the last 3 dayâ�,��"�s highs).  The correction of the recent downtrend to 1.0969 has been a choppy one but the top at 1.1272 ended an A-B-C zigzag correction.  The ensuing fall has been 3 full waves so far and the pair is supported by a short term trendline that originates at the 1.0969 low.  There are two options.  This could be a short term bottom in the middle of a more complex correction back towards 1.1272 and an eventual test of the 3/2 low of 1.1297 or this could be a correction of the fall from 1.1264 on its way back to test 1.0969.  Favoring bears are the daily oscillators turning back down and the pair again below the 20 day SMA.  With the proximity of the trendline at this point, risk is limited to the downside.  CCI is creeping above 0 on the hourly â�,�“ a possible clue that direction is up.

AUD/USD â�,�“ We commented yesterday that â�,��"AUD/USD made a doji yesterday right at its 38.2% fibo of .7014-.7791.  This combination gives scope of a possible reversal to the upside after a 300 pip correction of the .7014-.7791 bull wave.â�,�  The pair rallied 100 pips open to close yesterday.  A continuation of strength encounters a confluence of the 61.8% fibo of .7791-.7465 / 138.2% fibo extension of .7593-.7464 from .7489 at .7666.  Daily oscillators are inconclusive as they are mostly flat and near midpoints.  Support is at the 5/24 high .7560 followed by the low from that day at .7489.

NZD/USD â�,�“ Kiwi has fallen back a bit after rallying over 240 pips in 3 days.  The daily chart shows the most recent uptrend as the third wave of the downtrend to .5991.  If this is indeed a zigzag correction, then this current rally likely tests the 5/3 high at .6443.  In more intricate detail, the hourly chart shows us that Kiwi is in a correction of its overall larger correction with support at the 5/11 and 5/12 highs of .6330 as well as the 38.2% of .6142-.6417 at .6312.  A blast past the .6443 high at 5/3 would expose the 50% fibo of .7196-.5991at .6595.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.