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Odom & Frey Weekly Futures and Options Views
By Derek Frey | Published  05/28/2006 | Currency , Futures , Options | Unrated
Odom & Frey Weekly Futures and Options Views

Financials
Stocks: Stocks managed to bounce late in the week much as expected. We used the bounce to enter into a Bear put butterfly spread that can profit if the Dow trades between 11,000 and 10,000. Even though we have already corrected in this market quite a bit we continue to see further downside for stocks in the near term. This bounce we have seen is little more than a relief rally. I expect to see a turn back to the downside by the end of next week.

Bonds: Bonds continue to do the one step forward two steps back. 107 seems to act like a magnet for this market the last few weeks. In the short term I would expect to see bonds to continue to drift until we get some more reports and a better idea of future Fed. intentions.

Energies
Not a big surprise here this past week as crude oil prices steadied themselves Friday to close the week above 7100 on the July contract. This market is struggling to find reasons to head back to the upside from last weeks low of 6817. So with a long weekend and the beginning of the driving season starting on Monday, the buyers came in to protect themselves from any surprises that may arise out of that combination of factors.

This coming week will not be so telling with regards to inventory numbers from the DOE report but the following weeks report will be the one everyone is waiting for. This is because the reports reflect inventories for the previous week and everyone is anxious to see how the refineries keep up with demand and just how healthy that demand is with the current prices at the pump.

Donâ,"t expect prices to drop anytime soon unless the refineries are able to paint a rosy supply picture during this season. Even then we have to contend with hurricane fears and our troubles abroad (Iran, Nigeria, Venezuela etc.) which will no doubt be enough to keep prices at least in the 60â,"s.

Metals
Metals spent the week continuing to trade within the ranges we have seen for the last few weeks. Gold seems to have found support and in the near term I expect to see this market continue to bounce. Look for Gold to run back towards 675 this week and silver should find itâ,"s way back above 13 cents as well. Copper could break out to the upside again and continue to be the leader of the metals complex. Overall this bull is still very much in tact and the recent pull back really only makes the bull case stronger.

Grains
Grains were mixed again this past week. Wheat had the most volatility these last few weeks but I do not expect this market to be the leader much longer. Corn could quickly become the favorite grain this season so look for long corn trades if you havenâ,"t already. The Soy complex continues to struggle to stage any real rally and for now this could remain the case. I would favor the long side of soy none the less.

Softs
OJ managed a very strong rally just as we begin Hurricane season here in Florida. This market could find its way above 2.00 before the end of this yearâ,"s hurricane season if the groves are hit. Longer term call trades in this market are the best form of Hurricane â,"insuranceâ, any citrus farmer can have. Cocoa failed to follow through again. This market will just not follow through in either direction no matter what happens it seems. For now we are nearing the lower end of the range and therefore I would favor the long side but only slightly. Coffee did confirm the downward trend I mentioned last week and for now this market is a sell, but longer term I would begin to look at the long side once we slide below 95. Sugar continued to struggle but did manage to so far hold support. We may â,"shakeoutâ, more early next week but I do expect a turn back towards higher prices in the very near future. Cotton was in fact a head fake as expected and we are now poised to run back above 53 this coming week.

Meats
June Live Cattle waqs able to bust through resistance this week and I'm still an intermediate term bull here. Japan has started to allow imorts from the U.S. in a very tentavie and over regulated mannner but nonetheless this is supportive for pricing in the near term.

Lean Hogs corrected somewhat just as I called for last week. Demand numbers remain strong and I think we'll be heded back to the upside this coming week.

Forex Currencies
EUR/USD: The Euro continues to drift with in its bull flag formation. I expect to see a further breakdown here this coming week. Longer term I remain a bull but I do not think todayâ,"s pullback ran its full course just yet so bulls beware in the near term.

USD/CHF: The bounce continues and I still expect to see 1.2400 before turning back down.

GBP/USD: The cable pulled back as expected this week but here too I do not think the slide is over just yet. We could see 1.83 before staging any real bounce.

USD/JPY: This bounce also continues and I still expect to see my target of 114 hit this week.

AUD/USD: We hit my target from last week of .75 and bounced. Near term I think you will see continued strength here as we see energy prices begin to go back up next week.

USD/CAD: Last weeks projection on this pair was dead wrong. I expected follow through to the upside and instead we broke down. I got stopped out and for now am on the side lines but I will look to buy long again as we approach 1.1000.

Matt Odom is the Managing Partner and Energy Analyst and Derek Frey is Head Trader at Odom & Frey Futures & Options.

Risk Disclaimer 
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading futures and options is not suitable for everyone. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.