EUR/AUD ââ,¬â€œ The Aussie and euro have gone back and forth this week, with the currency from down under winning the latest battle.  EUR/AUD made a double top at the 3/27 and 3/29 highs last Friday at 1.7113 before falling nearly 300 pips.  With the strong move, daily oscillators have turned south and are mostly bearish.  CCI and RSI are still above midpoints of 0 and 50, so any bearish stance should be taken with caution.  The hourly chart shows an obvious 5 wave rally from 1.6363 to 1.7113 with the decline to 1.6797 likely the first wave of 3 corrective.  The current rally then is the second wave and faces resistance is at the 38.2% fibo of 1.7113-1.6797 at 1.6917 as well as the 50% fibo at 1.6955 and the 61.8% fibo at 1.6992.  If this all plays out, then an ensuing 3rd corrective wave would target the 5/17 low at 1.6677.

EUR/CAD ââ,¬â€œ EUR/CAD trades has been trading within a contracting, ascending triangle since 1/9 and sits right at the confluence of the lower supporting trendline / 20 day SMA on the daily.  With the support at current levels, an upward bounce encounters resistance at the 5/22 low of 1.4272 and continued strength would find the resisting trendline from the ascending triangle at around 1.4434.  The trendline increases by about 3 pips per day.  A break below the lower supporting line exposes the 78.6% fibo of 1.3909-1.4454 at 1.4006.  Declining daily oscillators favor shorts.

EUR/NZD ââ,¬â€œ The negative divergence indicated by oscillators last week on the daily chart were quite prophetic.  The euro has declined against the Kiwi by 540 pips so far this week, open to close.  After a small rally on the hourly (keep in mind that ATR is 284) from 1.9896-2.0149, hourly oscillators are declining and bearish again.  Initial support is at yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s 1.9896 low.  The volatility of this pair suggests that a correction to the 4/13 low of 1.9336 is not out of the question.  Resistance is at the 38.2% fibo of 2.0809-1.9896 at 2.0245.  A break above there gives scope to an assault on the 5/23 low at 2.0389.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.