EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ EUR/USD continues to range, primarily between 1.2880 and 1.2700 as the pair trades up off of a bounce from support at the lower end of the triangle at Fridayââ,¬â"¢s 1.2699 low.  The consolidation that followed the 1.2970 high on 5/15 has taken the form of a symmetrical triangle.  Volatility has contracted in recent days as the pair has traded mostly along the confluence of the upward sloping support line from the triangle / 20 day SMA at 1.2765.  Oscillators on the daily are sloping down and thus favor shorts.  Resistance at the upper end of the triangle is strengthened by the 78.6% fibo of 1.2890-1.2728 at 1.2828.  A break beyond there would target the 5/24 high of 1.2890.  A break below the lower end of the triangle near 1.2775 exposes the 5/19 low at 1.2691.  The range market that has persisted since 5/14 may give way to a more impulsive move as we near the end of this triangle.

USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ USD/JPY has broken through the supporting trendline on the hourly chart that was containing the lower end of the range.  Thursdayââ,¬â"¢s double top at 112.94 is strong resistance.  Further, a bearish engulfing pattern is evident from Thursdayââ,¬â"¢s daily candle and it formed right at the double top of 112.94 (just above the 38.2% fibo of 118.83-108.96).  With the pair just above 112.00, support comes in at the 5/26 low of 111.44.  Additional weakness exposes the 5/23 low at 110.96.  Immediate resistance is at the mentioned 112.94 followed by the 50% fibo of 118.86-108.96 at 113.93.

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ GBP/USD trades in a downward sloping channel as it continues to digest the gains to 1.9024. Fridayââ,¬â"¢s low found support at the lower end of the channel at 1.8529.  Bears have broken through the 20 day SMA and price closed below there for the first time since 4/10.  Resistance is at fibos of the most immediate downfall from 1.8883-1.8529 at 1.8705 (50%) and 1.8747 (61.8%).  Downward sloping oscillators on the daily give scope to a more severe correction, possibly to the 38.2% of 1.7227-1.9024 at 1.8339. 

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ The hourly chart of USD/CHF has played out just as expected.  The pair rallied to the top of its upward sloping correction on Friday to 1.2299 and has tapered off a bit since.  A break below Fridayââ,¬â"¢s 1.2137 low exposes the daily lows at 1.2024 (5/24) and 1.2015 (5.22).  The pair closed above its 20 day SMA on Friday for the first time since 4/10.  The daily chart shows resistance from the 5/26 and 5/11 highs at 1.2299/1.2304 but a break above would target the 38.2% fibo of 1.3235-1.1919 at 1.2421.

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ USD/CAD has moved very little in the last day and a half.  The correction of the recent downtrend to 1.0969 has been a choppy one but the top at 1.1272 ended an A-B-C zigzag correction.  The ensuing fall has been 3 full waves so far and the pair is supported by a short term trendline that originates at the 1.0969 low.  There are two options.  This could be a short term bottom in the middle of a more complex correction back towards 1.1272 and an eventual test of the 3/2 low of 1.1297 or this could be a correction of the fall from 1.1264 on its way back to test 1.0969.  Favoring bears are the daily oscillators turning back down and the pair again below the 20 day SMA.  With the proximity of the trendline at this point, risk is limited to the downside.

AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œ AUD/USD trades just below the confluence of its 10 day SMA / 38.2% of .7791-.7466 at .7590.  A continuation of strength encounters a confluence of the 61.8% fibo of .7791-.7465 / 138.2% fibo extension of .7593-.7464 from .7489 at .7666.  Daily oscillators are inconclusive as they are mostly flat and near midpoints.  Support is at the 5/24 high .7560 followed by the low from that day at .7489.  The recent break of a downward sloping trendline on the hourly gives a slightly bullish bias above Fridayââ,¬â"¢s .7557 low. As does the long doji on the weekly chart.

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ Kiwi has fallen back after rallying over 240 pips in 3 days.  The daily chart shows the most recent uptrend as the third wave of the downtrend to .5991.  If this is indeed a zigzag correction, then this current rally likely tests the 5/3 high at .6443.  In more intricate detail, the hourly chart shows us that Kiwi is in a correction of its overall larger correction with support at the 5/11 and 5/12 highs of .6330 as well as the 38.2% of .6142-.6417 at .6312.  A blast past the .6443 high at 5/3 would expose the 50% fibo of .7196-.5991at .6595.  Supporting a more bullish case going forward is a bullish engulfing pattern on the weekly chart.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.