EUR/JPY ââ,¬â€œ EUR/JPY has ranged the past week between 144.20 and 142.65, just above the confluence of its 10 and 20 day SMAââ,¬â"¢s.  The pair has rallied from 140.19 since 5/17 but Thursdayââ,¬â"¢s bearish engulfing candle on the daily gives scope to a reversal to the downside.  Also disconcerting to bulls is a head and shoulders reversal pattern on the hourly.  The 5/23 high at 143.77 is the high of the left shoulder and is immediate resistance.  Oscillators on the daily are beginning to turn over as well with RSI sitting just above its midpoint of 50.  A break above the 5/24 high at 144.20 exposes the 5/5 high at 144.73.  Wave structure supports a bearish view with the rally to 144.20 completing a 5 wave sequence.

EUR/CHF ââ,¬â€œ EUR/CHF has rallied significantly off of its 1.5447 low on 5/18 and is currently resisted by its 100 day SMA at 1.5620.  This rally is potentially a 4th wave correction of the decline from 1.5821 to 1.5447 which means a 5th wave down would challenge the 1.5447 low as well as the 1/6 low at 1.5408.  Contrary to this view are rising oscillator values on the daily.  However, the hourly is rather bearish as RSI has declined from above the overbought 70 level.  Initial support is at the 38.2% fibo of 1.5447-1.5630 at 1.5561.

EUR/GBP ââ,¬â€œ EUR/GBP is a spitting image of EUR/CHF and also encounters resistance at the 100 day SMA, 20 pips above current price at .6871.  The rally from .6752 is a possible corrective 4th wave of the decline from .6980 to .6752.  The rally came up just short of the 50% fibo of the decline from .6980 at .6866, making its high on Friday at .6863.  Any rallies encounter resistance at the mentioned fibo as well as the confluence of the 100 day SMA / 5/10 high at .6871/72.  Hourly oscillators favor shorts as RSI has declined below 70.  Support stems from the 38.2% fibo of .6752-.6863 at .6821 followed by the 5/24 low at .6799.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.